- Bitcoin rose 2.5% in June amid three-month uptrend, adding 15% in first-half of 2025 despite retreating from May’s peak.
- Receding Middle East tensions, progress on stablecoin regulation, and dovish Fed bias support BTC bulls.
- Whale buying, rising hopes of government acceptance, and strong demand from Strategy also boosted BTC/USD.
- Institutional interest, Trump’s support, and Fed rate cut bias could boost BTC in July, but a new record high seems difficult.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) starts July on shaky ground, hovering around $107,000 during Tuesday’s European session. Despite pulling back from May’s record high, the crypto rose nearly 2.5% in June, marking its third straight monthly gain and a 15% rise in the first half (1H) of 2025.
Key drivers behind Bitcoin’s recent moves include growing market bets on U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, fueled by mixed U.S. economic data and President Donald Trump’s push for lower rates. The U.S. Congress’ passage of a stablecoin regulation bill also supports Trump’s promise of more crypto-friendly policies. Meanwhile, major mortgage agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are considering accepting crypto for mortgage payments and collateral—another sign of increasing government acceptance.
On the institutional side, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bought $531.9 million worth of 4,980 Bitcoins between June 23 and 29, at an average price of $106,801 each. This boosts Strategy’s total holdings to 597,325 BTC, valued over $64 billion, bought at an average of $70,982 per coin.
Geopolitical relief also played a role, with a ceasefire between Israel and Iran holding last week and White House optimism on trade deals, both increasing risk appetite and supporting Bitcoin buyers.
Lastly, a strong inflow of nearly $13 billion into U.S. spot BTC ETFs since 2025 began, combined with ongoing whale buying, adds further strength to BTC/USD.
Looking forward, geopolitical relief and strong ETF inflows bolster risk appetite but technical hurdles suggest that a fresh record high may remain out of reach for now. Even so, BTC is poised for a cautiously optimistic July, likely seeing moderate gains amid some volatility as buyers navigate key resistance levels. Traders should stay alert for shifts in Fed policy and institutional activity that could steer the next big move.
Technical Analysis
While fundamentals are fully positive for Bitcoin buyers, technical signals point to a cautious upside outlook.
BTC/USD: Daily chart hints at gradual upside
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) retreats from a five-week resistance near $108,750, while holding below May’s upward-sloping trend line resistance stretched from December 2024, around $113,700—indicating bulls’ cautious approach.
However, BTC remains strong above the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), near $100,500 and $94,700 respectively, with key downside support at a six-month-old horizontal zone near $89,000.
A positive 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals add strength to the upside bias.
Overall, BTC stays on the front foot, but reaching a new record high appears challenging in the near term.
