Market sentiment stayed mildly positive on Friday, buoyed by progress in U.S. trade talks with China and the European Union (EU), as well as anticipation ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout starting Saturday. Gains in technology shares and optimism over major crypto legislation added to the upbeat mood, even as strong U.S. economic data supported the U.S. Dollar’s weekly advance.
U.S. Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey beat expectations, challenging the dovish tone set by softer Producer Price Index (PPI) and upbeat Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller hinted at a potential rate cut in July, softening the dollar’s rise, while other officials—Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, and Adriana Kugler—stressed a cautious, data-driven approach, rejecting aggressive cuts as suggested by former President Donald Trump.
Trump also faced a legal blow, with a judge ruling his dismissal of a Federal Trade Commission (FTC) commissioner was unlawful—casting doubt on any attempt to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who continues to cooperate with long-standing investigations.
Internationally, China’s Commerce Minister expressed confidence in the domestic economy and trade progress, supported by a ¥1.3 trillion liquidity injection from the People’s Bank of China—its largest since January. However, tensions rose as China threatened to block a Panama Canal ports deal unless state-owned firm COSCO gains a stake. Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Advisor Peter Navarro said multiple trade deals are underway, though mostly unilateral.
In crypto, bulls cheered the U.S. House of Representatives passing the GENIUS Act (regulating stablecoins) by a 308–122 vote, now awaiting Trump’s signature. The CLARITY Act (defining broader crypto regulations) also passed 294–134 and moves to the Senate. The Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Act, tied to the National Defense Authorization Act, faces more delay due to political divisions.
Adding to crypto momentum, the Financial Times reported Trump plans to sign an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to include crypto assets—potentially unlocking access to the $9.0 trillion retirement market.
Finally, strong earnings from Netflix and a White House shift on tech chip exports to China helped boost equities and cap bond yields, supporting the broader risk-on mood.
Latest moves of key assets
- Gold climbs 0.60% intraday to $3,360, recovering from a six-month-old support near $3,315 and trimming weekly losses, potentially marking its first weekly gain in three.
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD) holds steady around $119,400, posting a modest 0.19% weekly gain despite hitting a record peak of $123,236 earlier this week.
- Ethereum (ETH/USD) reaches a six-month high before pulling back to $3,610, up 3.8% intraday at press time.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses prior gains, dropping 0.40% intraday near 98.20, yet still on track for a second consecutive weekly rise.
- Wall Street closes with moderate gains, led by Nasdaq’s 0.75% increase, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both rise nearly 0.50%; U.S. stock futures remain slightly positive following advances in Asia-Pacific and European markets.
- WTI crude oil breaks a four-day losing streak, surging roughly 1.60% to $67.40 at the latest.
What’s Next?
Looking ahead, market players will watch preliminary July data from the University of Michigan—covering Consumer Sentiment, Consumer Expectations, and Inflation Expectations—for cues on the U.S. economy.
Stronger inflation and upbeat sentiment could lift the U.S. Dollar to end the week higher, pressuring gold below the key support $3,315 level. Cryptocurrencies may stay resilient, supported by sector optimism and rising institutional inflows.
However, any surprise moves by former President Donald Trump—such as attempts to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, escalate tariffs, or stir geopolitical tensions in Ukraine or the Middle East—could jolt markets, weaken the dollar, and revive gold’s appeal.
