Key Takeaways
- Trump and Putin set to meet in Alaska on Aug. 15 to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict.
- Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement restoring diplomatic ties and reopening trade routes.
- J.P. Morgan now expects the Fed to cut rates in September, citing labor market weakness.
- Bitcoin surged to $121,620 while gold slipped and Brent crude fell more than 3%.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
Markets traded mostly higher on Aug. 11 after a weekend of peace talks, negotiations and historic agreements.
On the diplomatic front, the White House is preparing for a meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to Washington, the Aug. 15 meeting is a direct attempt to end the war in Ukraine.
Moscow has confirmed its attendance to the Alaska meeting, describing it as an opportunity to work toward a long-term resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.
On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed any possibility of ceding territory, stating that Ukraine’s sovereignty is not negotiable.
Separately, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in Washington on August 8, restoring diplomatic relations and reopening trade and transport links. The deal, which includes a U.S.-monitored transit corridor and removes restrictions on defense cooperation, does not settle the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.
These peaceful achievements have not been welcomed by all. Russia, while officially supportive of the Armenia–Azerbaijan agreement, has cautioned against foreign powers reshaping the regional security balance. Meanwhile, Iran has rejected the planned transit corridor, warning it could undermine its own trade and energy interests.
On the Economic Front, J.P. Morgan now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, bringing forward its earlier forecast for a move in December. The bank cited signs of labor market weakness and uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s latest Fed nomination, and now projects three more quarter-point cuts after September before the central bank pauses.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Aug. 9 that weaker job data has reinforced her concerns about labor market fragility and bolstered her view that three rate cuts are likely appropriate this year.
While many Fed policymakers have been cautious about lowering rates too quickly, arguing that Trump administration’s tariffs could slow the push to bring inflation down, recent remarks from several members indicate being more open to cuts.
Global Indices
S&P 500 Index (SPX): 6,389.44 (+0.78%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 44,175.61 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC): 21,450.02 (+0.98%)
Nikkei 225 Futures (NK225): 42,310.0 (+1.17%)
Euronext 100 Index (N100): 1,579.74 (+0.31%)
FTSE 100 (UKX): 9,102.0 (+0.08%)
Major Stocks
Nvidia (NVDA): 182.70 (+1.07%)
Tesla (TSLA): 329.65 (+2.29%)
Microsoft (MSFT): 522.04 (+0.23%)
Meta Platforms (META): 769.30 (+0.98%)
Apple (AAPL): 229.35 (+4.24%)
Amazon (AMZN): 222.69 (-0.20%)
Commodities
Silver (XAGUSD): 38.074 (-0.63%)
Gold (XAUUSD): 3,377.740 (-0.61%)
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL): 63.51 (+0.27%)
Brent Crude (BRENT): 68.160 (-3.68%)
Forex
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.620 (-0.24%)
EUR/USD: 1.16734 (+0.29%)
GBP/USD: 1.34675 (+0.15%)
USD/JPY: 147.469 (-0.16%)
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): 121,774 (+2.07%)
Ethereum (ETHUSDT): 4,328.00 (+1.82%)
Binance Coin (BNBUSDT): 823.00 (+1.95%)
Solana (SOLUSDT): 186.11 (+1.88%)
BTC Dominance: 60.56% (+0.12)
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