Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin (BTC) hit $107,100 before reversing sharply to $103K.
- 1hr chart shows a bear flag, rejection wicks, and bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence.
- Daily chart shows an engulfing candle near resistance.
- $104K is short-term resistance; $100K–$98K is key for support and reaccumulation.
- Improved market sentiment may drive a breakout despite current bearish signals.
Bitcoin (BTC) recently climbed to a short-term peak of $107,100, falling just below its all-time high of $109,114.88, before sharply pulling back. This rally, fueled by bullish momentum, lacked follow-through and quickly reversed, sending BTC down to the $103K level.
With the price now consolidating beneath key resistance, technical signals suggest the market is entering a cooling phase, potentially setting up a retest of the critical $100K zone.
However, despite bearish technical indicators, BTC may witness a breakout if broader market sentiment shifts positively, particularly through renewed institutional inflows, a weakening dollar, or bullish macro catalysts like ETF-driven demand.
A strong surge in trading volume or a decisive reclaim of the $104K–$105K range could invalidate the bearish setup and reignite the upward trend.
1-Hour Chart Analysis: Intraday Correction Signals Bearish Bias
BTC is undergoing a short-term correction after peaking near $107K. It is currently trading around $103K, struggling to reclaim former support levels, with weak follow-through on recent bounce attempts.
Formations & Patterns:
BTC appears to be forming a bear flag — a typical continuation pattern — as price consolidates just below the prior support-turned-resistance at $104K.
This zone has shown persistent rejection wicks and low-volume recovery, both indicative of selling pressure outweighing demand. The pattern is also developing within a lower-high structure, a classic intraday bearish setup.
Indicators:
- RSI (42.42): Bearish momentum dominates, approaching oversold conditions.
- Bollinger Bands: Price is riding the lower band, signaling strong downside pressure.
- MACD: Bearish crossover active; histogram widening in red, indicating increasing downside momentum.
If Bitcoin doesn’t reclaim the $104K level soon, it could drop further, first testing support around $101K, and potentially falling to the psychologically significant $100K mark.
1-Day Chart Analysis: Uptrend Intact, But Losing Steam
Bitcoin’s broader uptrend remains technically valid, but momentum has weakened following a failed second push toward its recent high. The price closed at $103,010 — below its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and heading toward the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Formations & Patterns:
Bitcoin’s recent rejection near $107K is showing clear signs of short-term exhaustion on the daily chart. The latest daily candle is a bearish engulfing pattern — a classic signal of potential trend reversal.
At the same time, BTC is hovering near the 9- and 20-day EMAs, with price action tightening in a narrow range. This kind of compression often precedes a sharp move, though it doesn’t yet confirm direction.
Indicators:
- RSI (60.59): Dropped from overbought levels, now reflecting a waning bullish push.
- Bollinger Bands: Price rejected the upper band and is drifting toward the midline (~$100.6K).
- MACD: Still technically bullish, but signal lines are converging, and the histogram is weakening, signaling fading upside.
Wrap-Up: Bitcoin at a Pivotal Level
Bitcoin’s technical landscape is showing early-stage symptoms of a correction across timeframes. The hourly chart reveals momentum loss, selling pressure, and divergence, while the daily chart suggests price exhaustion. With price clustering near moving averages and trendlines, a decisive move is likely approaching.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin sits at a technical crossroads. Whether the current move is a temporary cooldown or the start of a deeper retracement depends largely on how the price behaves around the $100K–$104K range.
A strong recovery above $104K could reignite bullish momentum, while a clear break below $100K may open the door to broader downside.
For now, all eyes are on whether BTC can hold its key support levels, or if growing volatility will drive its next major move.
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