S&P Global warned that the boom in artificial intelligence and data centers is turning copper into a potential chokepoint for the digital economy, with demand on track to outstrip supply by 10 million metric tons by 2040 if new mines and processing are not built in time.
AI Race Adds 50% to Global Copper Demand
According to a study published by S&P Global, copper demand is expected to rise 50%, from 28 million metric tons in 2025 to 42 million in 2040, driven by four main forces: core economic uses such as construction and machinery, the energy transition including renewables and electric vehicles, fast growing AI and data centers, and increased defense spending.
Driving this newest wave of demand is the rapid advance of AI, with power-hungry data centers that train and run large language models expected to lift their share of United States electricity consumption from about 5% in 2025 to as much as 14% by 2030.
S&P Global estimates that direct copper demand from data centers will climb from about 1.1 million metric tons in 2025 to 2.5 million in 2040, as AI training campuses use particularly large amounts of copper per unit of power capacity, with a typical site in China needing about 47 metric tons of copper for every megawatt of installed capacity, which is more than double the global average for crypto-focused centers at 21 metric tons per megawatt.
Depending on how fast AI infrastructure rolls out and how quickly grids can be reinforced, total data center copper demand in 2040 could range between 1.7 million and 2.7 million metric tons a year, the report said. It added that indirect effects of AI on industry and infrastructure were not yet fully captured in those figures.
Supply Struggles to Cover 10 Million Tons Gap
As demand increases, the supply picture looks far tighter, with mined and recycled copper together at risk of falling about 10 million metric tons short of needs by 2040 if investment and project approvals do not accelerate. According to the study, average ore grades are declining, costs are rising, and new mines take around 17 years on average to move from discovery to production, making it difficult for supply to catch up.
Defense and Robots Add 2.6 Million Tons of Demand
The study said that copper is also becoming more strategic as militaries electrify equipment and integrate AI into weapons, communications and surveillance systems. Defense related copper demand is projected to triple to nearly 1 million metric tons by 2040 and is seen as inelastic because of national security priorities.
Looking further ahead, humanoid robots that combine AI with electric actuators could form a fifth demand pillar, as one billion of such robots in operation by 2040 would require about 1.6 million metric tons of copper a year, equal to roughly 6% of today’s market, S&P Global estimated.
Silver’s Rally Puts Copper in the Spotlight
Similar to silver’s recent surge driven by tight supply, strong industrial demand and investor buying, copper could see its own powerful rise if the S&P Global scenario happens.
A 50% jump in demand by 2040, growing AI data center and defense needs, and a potential 10 million metric tons supply gap would push the market into much tighter territory.
In that scenario, copper would start to trade less like a basic construction metal and more like a strategic asset, with higher average prices and sharp spikes whenever demand surprises collide with mine delays, processing disruptions or geopolitical shocks.
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