Key Points:
- Bitcoin transaction fees normalized after a May spike, reflecting changing network demand.
- Mempool congestion dropped despite rising prices, hinting at large-holder accumulation.
- The NVT Golden Cross turned positive, signaling growing network activity, but remains volatile.
Bitcoin’s Fees Per Transaction
The fee currently sits at $1.49 per transaction according to Blockchain.com. There was a notable spike around early May, with fees briefly peaking above $3.50, more than double the current rate. The chart between Bitcoin (BTC)’s price and transaction fees shows a moderate correlation across three months as both tend to rise during periods of increased market activity. Notably, as BTC neared $105K in May, transaction fees also spiked, suggesting heightened demand for block space. However, earlier fee spikes occurred independently, indicating that network congestion or specific events also influence fees beyond just price action.
Bitcoin & Mempool
While Bitcoin’s price steadily climbed to over $105K from mid-April to May and back to $102K at the time of reporting, the number of pending transactions in the mempool declined significantly. This suggests that despite rising prices, network congestion eased, potentially due to fewer retail participants or improved transaction efficiency. It reflects strong accumulation by larger players rather than a retail-driven rally.
NVT Golden Cross Indicator
The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Golden Cross is a Bitcoin indicator that compares price with how much the network is being used. It helps identify if BTC may be overvalued or undervalued. In this chart, the NVT Golden Cross (blue line) recently flipped positive and spiked sharply to 1.1 according to Crypto Quant. This rise suggests that network activity is increasing faster than market value, a pattern often seen near the start of bullish moves. However, the signal has shown high volatility, so confirmation is still needed. Values above 2.2 may signal overbuying (a possible top), while values below 1.6 may point to overselling (a possible bottom).
Conclusion
Recent on-chain data offers a balanced view of Bitcoin’s current market dynamics. Transaction fees have returned to $1.49 after spiking above $3.50 in early May. This trend shows a moderate link between price action and network demand, with fees rising during periods of increased market activity. As Bitcoin crossed $105K, transaction fees climbed, indicating heightened demand for block space.
At the same time, mempool congestion eased despite the rising price. The number of pending transactions fell, suggesting improved transaction efficiency or reduced retail participation. This shift points toward accumulation by larger holders rather than a retail-driven rally.
The NVT Golden Cross also turned positive, showing that network activity is growing faster than market value. This pattern often appears at the early stages of bullish moves. However, the indicator remains volatile, so further confirmation is necessary.
Altogether, these signals reflect a cautiously optimistic setup. Network usage remains steady, and accumulation appears to be happening without excessive speculation.
