Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500, a U.S.stock market index, has varied across cycles. In early 2020, the correlation saw a positive spike to about 0.50 while generally sustaining a higher correlation band of 0.0 to 0.60 over the last five years, with the most recent correlation in early April 2025 at about 0.48.
Bitcoin, as an asset class, grants impressive returns but is packed with high volatility, while the S&P 500 focuses on stability and does not carry as much volatility as Bitcoin. Market investors must understand Bitcoin’s movements in comparison to traditional financial markets. The relation between these assets could benefit the portfolio building, risk management, and diversification techniques.
Bitcoin’s role operates as a highly volatile yet rewarding Returns on investment (ROI) compared to the stock market index, S&P500. Over the past year, BTC climbed by 97.28%, while the S&P 500 followed the slow and steady path and delivered a 15% gain for the time period. Both assets have performed in the long run, with Bitcoin offering more price volatility and offering more opportunities.
Bitcoin Vs. S&P ROI
The largest cryptocurrency maintains the cumulative return of approximately 977% (from $11,329.20 on July 1, 2020, to $121,988.09 in early August 2025), beating the metric for the S&P 500 of about 105.98% (from $3,101.92 on July 1, 2020, to $6,389.44 in the second week of August 2025). The historical trends point towards Bitcoin as the clear winner for the ROI (return on investment) parameter.
Key Trends
- Volatile Gains: From 2020, Bitcoin’s returns ranged from +303% to -64%. Followed in the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered returns in a short range from -19% to +27%. Based on the data from Macrotrends and Statmuse, by August 2025, Bitcoin achieved a year-to-date gain of 20.33% in comparison to the S&P’s gain of 8.31%.
- Institutional Interest: Institutional interest in Bitcoin, surged by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11, 2024, has additionally strengthened the base of the largest cryptocurrency. The growing interest by these giants supported the long-term growth for the digital gold, Bitcoin.
Important Factors for Investing
- Risk and Reward: Bitcoin is recognized for its high returns, but one must stay aware of its volatility, making it a great option for the investors who are willing to take on greater risk, while the S&P 500 provides steady returns to support conservative portfolios.
- Market dynamics: Bitcoin’s price volatility is sometimes strengthened in respect to its size when reacting to “news” events (e.g., regulations), while the S&P 500 seems to be focused on the bigger picture of the actual economic conditions.
What does a correlation value between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 indicate?
Correlation value measures how two assets move together, from -1 (perfect opposite) to 1 (perfect same direction). The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 illustrates its evolving role in the economy. The comparison of the last five years shows a 30-day correlation that has often surpassed 70%.
The result could indicate that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 tend to move together, especially during financial market uncertainty.
