Key Points:
- $98.3K marks a critical support level for short-term holders.
- A top trader flipped short after $17M in losses, reflecting shaken confidence.
- Social media sentiment is turning bullish
Why $98K Could Be Bitcoin’s Breaking Point
According to Alphractal, the short-term holder (STH) realized price currently sits at $98,300, a key level keeping recent investors in profit. As long as BTC stays above this line, the market can be considered in bullish territory with room for further upside.
If Bitcoin dips below $98K sharply, it could signal a shift in momentum and lead to a deeper correction. For active traders, this level also acts as a logical stop-loss zone, helping manage risk in case the trend breaks down.
In simple terms, $98K is the floor holding up retail optimism right now. At the time of reporting, BTC was trading at $105K.
Despite BTC trading between $101K–$110K, exchange netflows have mostly been negative, signaling accumulation, not selling. This silent outflow trend suggests whales are buying dips and pulling BTC into cold storage, draining supply. If buying pressure returns, this setup could trigger a sharp breakout.
According to Lookonchain, a high-profile trader, Aguila Trades, just closed his Bitcoin long position with a $17 million loss, his third loss in two weeks, bringing total losses to $32.7 million. He has since flipped to a short position and quickly booked a small profit, showing just how fragile sentiment can be around this key $98.3K level.
Shorts vs Longs
- Total Shorts: $4.6M
- Total Longs: $6.86M
As of June 24, total BTC positioning shows a 60/40 long bias ($6.86M vs. $4.6M), indicating moderate bullish sentiment, not overly aggressive. Most exchanges lean heavily long, except OKX, which is notably net short ($1.41M vs. $478K), introducing squeeze risk in both directions. A break below $104K could trigger long liquidations and shift sentiment quickly.
Social Media Sentiment
As of June 24, social sentiment shows a slight bullish bias. X logs 327 bullish vs. 245 bearish mentions, and Telegram shows 190 bullish vs. 174 bearish. With BTC at $105K, traders appear cautiously optimistic, suggesting potential upside if momentum strengthens.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is hovering at a critical support zone near $98.3K, acting as the psychological and realized-price floor for short-term holders. With institutional inflows fading and top traders turning cautious, sentiment remains fragile. However, ongoing accumulation and a 60/40 long bias suggest that if $98.3K holds, any renewed buying pressure could trigger a sharp rebound. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and watch the $98K–$104K range closely.
