SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year market cycle remains in place despite the growing influence of institutional investors and exchange-traded funds, arguing that recent weakness fits within a more traditional correction than many investors may think.
Speaking on The Wolf of All Streets podcast, Scaramucci said Bitcoin’s recent downturn does not necessarily signal a break from historical patterns. Instead, he said the market appears to be moving through a familiar phase, even if the cycle has become less volatile than in previous years.
The pattern he referred to is Bitcoin’s widely followed four-year cycle, in which a strong rally is typically followed by a correction before the market begins to recover.
ETFs and Corporate Buying Have Softened Bitcoin’s Swings
Scaramucci argued that institutional participation has softened some of Bitcoin’s sharper swings, as ETF inflows and larger holdings by public companies and exchange-traded products have changed the way the asset trades. Even so, he noted that those forces have not changed the broader pattern that has shaped Bitcoin for years.
Scaramucci said the current downturn may also reflect selling from long-time holders around the closely watched $100,000 level, a price point that carried both psychological and market significance. He said that some early investors who strongly believe in the four-year pattern may have contributed to that move by taking profits as Bitcoin approached six figures.
There were some traditional whales, some OGs that believe in the four-year cycle. When you believe in something, you create a self-fulfilling prophecy. So these guys looked around and said, okay, we’re over 100. It’s sort of a magic number for me.
Scaramucci Sees Recovery Potential in Late 2026
While he expects trading to remain uneven for much of 2026, Scaramucci said Bitcoin could begin to recover later in the year, especially in the fourth quarter.
Despite the latest weakness, Scaramucci said he still expects Bitcoin to benefit over time from growth in stablecoins, tokenization, and institutional adoption.
His broader argument is that Bitcoin’s structure may be changing, but not enough to fully break the historical pattern. For Scaramucci, the cycle has not disappeared. It has simply become more muted, with deeper institutional involvement smoothing volatility while leaving the larger market framework largely intact.
