Coinbase Prediction Markets are now available. This is another big step forward for Coinbase, which launched a brand new product offering to all U.S customers with the ability to trade on real outcomes within the U.S. through a partnership with Kalshi, a regulated prediction market in the U.S.
How Coinbase Prediction Markets Work
The Coinbase prediction market operates by offering simple “yes” or “no” contracts that represent a specific outcome. For example, you can purchase a “yes” contract on whether or not Team X will win the Super Bowl. Contracts will vary between USD 0 and USD 1, and that price is the market’s implied probability as to whether or not that outcome will occur.
The USD 1 that would be paid at settlement if a “yes” contract wins will also expire worthless if the contract loses. This will provide you with an opportunity to make predictions on the future of various areas, including politics, sports, economics, and pop culture, using U.S. Dollars on Coinbase through their existing platform.
A Strategic Move for Coinbase
The decision to launch the Coinbase Prediction Markets represents an important part of the crypto exchange’s strategy to transform into an all-encompassing platform, or “all-in-one exchange”. By joining forces with Kalshi’s regulated markets, Coinbase will now be able to provide this new product class without worrying about going through the complex regulatory environment relating to crypto-based prediction markets.
Coinbase will also take advantage of its existing large user base to provide mainstream visibility and liquidity for prediction markets, which we believe could drive significant growth across the entire sector, possibly capitalizing on it. On the timing, it also seems strategically advantageous, given that major events are happening shortly, including but not limited to the Super Bowl and the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. These events are expected to create an important trading volume.
