Key points
- 98.2% of BTC wallets are in profit, hinting at a possible market top.
- Speculators are fading as long-term investors drive a more stable rally.
- Exchange reserves hit monthly lows, signaling reduced sell pressure.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $103,800, with 98.2% of all BTC wallets in profit. This marks one of the most extreme levels of wallet profitability in recent history. According to CryptoQuant, the supply in loss has dropped below 2%, a level that has historically signaled late-stage bull markets and potential local tops.
Bitcoin’s price climbed from $76,200 in early April to a local high of $104,000. The rally was fueled by renewed optimism and strong investor sentiment. As a result, only 1.8% of wallets are in loss, the lowest point in this cycle. However, such high profitability levels often precede corrections, as traders look to lock in gains.
BTC On-chain signals show early signs of distribution
Since 2019, 99.82% of Bitcoin trading days have been profitable. Out of 5,413 days, 5,403 ended in the green. This matches current wallet data, which reflects widespread profit. While this supports Bitcoin’s long-term growth narrative, it also points to a potential short-term overheating, especially with BTC trading near all-time highs.
Speculative appetite fades as professionals take over
Another key on-chain metric—Short-Term Holder (STH) Year-over-Year Realized Price Growth—indicates that speculative appetite is weakening. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., this figure has dropped from 470% in 2021 to just 60% in May 2025.
“At the 2021 peak, STH YoY growth hit 470%. It fell to 164% by early 2024, then 146% later that year, and now sits at just 60%, showing a clear drop in aggressive speculation,” Adler noted.
Therefore, it appears that short-term speculators are stepping back, while more risk-aware investors are entering. Despite this slowdown, Adler expects a rebound toward 150%, suggesting more stable market dynamics ahead. Historically, this kind of shift has led to healthier, long-term price trends.
BTC drawdowns are shrinking with each cycle
Bitcoin’s price dips from all-time highs have become less severe. Previously, crashes exceeded 50%. In contrast, recent corrections have mostly remained below 25%. This trend suggests a maturing market, marked by increasing investor confidence and lower volatility.
BTC exchange reserves hit monthly low
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have declined to 2.45 million BTC, the lowest level in over a month. Meanwhile, the price has surged to $105.4K. Typically, falling reserves indicate reduced sell pressure, as more BTC moves to long-term storage. Thus, this supports a bullish bias during uptrends.
What’s next for BTC
In summary, Bitcoin’s rally shows signs of maturity. Wallet profitability is near record highs. Exchange reserves are dropping. And speculative momentum is fading. While a short-term pullback remains possible, long-term holder conviction and on-chain trends suggest a more sustainable market structure moving forward.
