- Bitcoin price hits eight-month low, ignoring overheated catalysts.
- Risk-off mood, whale selling, ETF outflows, and technical breakdown weigh on BTC price.
- Bitcoin’s first “Death Cross” since January 2022, hawkish Fed bias, and U.S. equity slump bolster bearish moves.
- Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows “Extreme Fear” with the lowest prints since 2020.
- U.S. BTC Spot ETFs reported the biggest daily outflow on record.
- Technical analysis suggests a corrective bounce, but market sentiment challenges recovery hopes.
Bitcoin (BTC) price drops to its lowest level on Friday since April, down for the third consecutive day, as bears approach $83,900 early Friday, down 3.0% intraday as we write.
In doing so, the crypto major bears the burden of broad risk aversion and technical breakdown, as well as BTC selling by key players, to face the first yearly loss in three years.
That said, Santiment marks a week’s high in trading volume to justify the BTC’s latest slump, especially amid a seven-month low in market capitalization (market cap). The latest figures of Bitcoin’s daily trading volume and market cap are $109.77 billion and $1.68 trillion, respectively.
However, overheated sentiment catalysts and 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest a corrective bounce in Bitcoin price as it approaches important technical support.
Let’s dig into the details!
Broad Risk-Aversion favors BTC Bears, despite Overheated Clues
Bitcoin price remains under immense pressure as market sentiment turns pessimistic amid hawkish hopes about the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), especially after the latest U.S. employment report.
Adding to the risk-aversion could be the U.S. technology shares’ inability to cheer upbeat news for leaders like Nvidia and Alphabet, Google’s parent company. On Thursday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index swung dramatically from a 2.0% gain to more than a 2.0% loss by the day’s end.
Meanwhile, a lack of clarity about the major trade and geopolitical issues also contributes to the sour sentiment and drags the BTC prices.
Against this backdrop, the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index portrays the market’s extreme fears with the 11.00 figure, the lowest level since the COVID-era of mid-2020. This also portrays the seller’s exhaustion and suggests an impending rebound in the Bitcoin price.
Major Players Keep Selling Bitcoin
The risk aversion pushes major Bitcoin players to liquidate and offer additional downside pressure on the price.
That said, Owen Gunden, one of the world’s largest individual Bitcoin holders, fully exited his position by selling around 11,000 Bitcoin worth roughly $1.3 billion between October 21 and November 20, including a final transfer of 2,499 Bitcoin to the Kraken exchange.
Elsewhere, SosoValue figures suggest that the U.S. Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) marked the record daily outflow on Thursday, worth $903.11 million in a single day. This also contributes to the grim monthly figures as the BTC’s monthly outflow marks a historic outflow of $3.79 billion for November.
Technical Analysis Highlights Bear’s Exhaustion
Technically, Bitcoin price drops to the multi-month low while justifying the first bearish moving average crossover since January 2022 and a downside break of the multi-month support line. However, oversold conditions of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the BTC’s proximity to short-term supports challenge the bears targeting the yearly low.
Bitcoin Price: Daily Chart Suggests Corrective Bounce
Bitcoin’s sustained trading below the horizontal support from May and an ascending trendline from September 2024, now resistance, joins the bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator (red histograms) to favor bears.
Adding strength to the downside bias is the first “Death Cross” since January 2022, a bearish moving average crossover wherein the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses the 200-day EMA from above.
Still, oversold RSI highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of BTC’s rise from August 2024 to October 2025, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”, close to $78,875 as we write.
Below that, the yearly low of $74,434 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $65,990 could gain Bitcoin sellers’ attention ahead of the late 2024 bottom near $52,500.
Alternatively, Bitcoin price recovery remains elusive below the $98,000 hurdle, comprising a convergence of the multi-month previous horizontal support and an ascending trendline.
Even so, the $100K, the 50-day EMA of $104,290, and the 200-day EMA around $106,590 could test the bulls before giving them control.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s latest slump gains validation from multiple catalysts, discussed above, even as the RSI conditions and immediate support levels suggest a short-term corrective bounce before a south-run toward the yearly low of $74,240.
Also read: Crypto Options: Bitcoin Falls Under $90K Ahead of $3.73B Weekly Expiry
