Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic in the Newyork session on Monday as traders cheer the U.S.-European Union (EU) deal on trade ‘framework,’ and on the hopes for another 90-day extension of the U.S.-China tariff pause.
Also keeping trade jitters in focus is a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to confirm previously announced trade deal boundaries.
Meanwhile, anxiety ahead of a busy week with key events, including the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, advance readings of U.S. and EU Q2 GDP, the U.S. jobs report, the Fed’s preferred inflation data, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy meetings, and China’s official PMI.
Furthermore, a cautious mood ahead of the White House’s ‘Crypto Report’ and Q2 earnings from top-tier Wall Street firms like Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon is also contributing to the latest market moves.
Moving on, Trump’s ‘disappointment’ in a call with Israel’s PM Netanyahu and push for increased weapon sales to Ukraine keep traders on thin ice, especially when the economic calendar for Monday and Tuesday appears mostly unimpressive for traders.
Against this backdrop, the U.S.Dollar Index (DXY) rallies for the third consecutive day and challenges Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) two-day winning streak while also exerting downside pressure on the spot Gold price (XAU/USD). That said, the BTC/USD prints the first daily loss in three, down 0.50% intraday near $118,900 by the press time, while spot gold (XAU/USD) remains pressured at a one-week low.
Altcoins stay defensive while U.S. stock futures and Asia-Pacific equities are slightly higher. Crude Oil reverses the previous day’s losses, the U.S. bond yields are mildly up, and Japanese bond yields decline. It is worth noting that Wall Street closed with mild gains on Friday, allowing the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones to stay near the all-time high (ATH).
The EU and the U.S. finally agreed on a trade deal framework on Sunday after much back-and-forth. The agreement includes a 15% blanket tariff on most EU goods, a $600 billion investment into the U.S., and a commitment to purchase around $750 billion worth of U.S. gas over time, though exact details are still being finalized. In a related development, U.S. President Donald Trump will meet United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday, while U.S.-China trade negotiators are expected to agree on a second 90-day pause in tariff actions during talks in Stockholm today. Japan has welcomed the recent U.S. trade developments, citing a reduction in global uncertainty.
On the economic front, U.S. Durable Goods Orders for June improved on Friday, but the details were mixed and the actual figures eased from May, fueling concerns about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025. Although the FOMC is not expected to adjust monetary policy at its July 30 meeting, last week’s pause by President Trump in his efforts to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell for more rate cuts offered temporary relief to the U.S. Dollar.
Latest moves of key assets
- Gold edges lower after three-day losing streak, poking intraday low around $3,325 with mild losses by the press time.
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD) snaps a two-day uptrend, with a 0.50% intraday loss near $118,900 at the latest.
- Ethereum (ETH/USD) stays defensive after hitting a yearly high, near $3,880, up 0.15% intraday as we write.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extends recovery from a two-week low to 98.25, up for the third consecutive day.
- Wall Street closed with mild gains: Nasdaq and S&P 500 hovered around record highs with mild daily gains, while Dow Jones rose 0.47%. That said, U.S. stock futures and global stocks edged higher of late.
- WTI Crude gains over 2.0% intraday to reverse Friday’s loss near $66.40, following a two-week downtrend.
What to Look For!
Looking forward, the economic calendar on Monday and Tuesday is mostly quiet with the bumper data, events, and earnings starting from Wednesday. Among them, the FOMC, growth numbers from the U.S. and EU, the Fed’s favorite inflation, monetary policy meetings from BoJ and BoC, as well as the US monthly employment report, will gain major attention.
It’s worth noting that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) meets on Monday. The global oil cartel is expected to maintain its current output increase policy, despite some OPEC members disobeying supply plans. On a related matter, Bloomberg reports that both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipate an oil surplus in the next year, challenging the latest rebound in crude oil prices.
Gold may remain under pressure as it struggles to defend bounce off 10-week support while staying beneath the key $3,340 support confluence, now resistance, comprising the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and trend line from December 2025.
