- Cautious optimism lifts Bitcoin and Ripple amid ETF speculation, SEC noise and tax uncertainty.
- XRP-ETF momentum builds as US SEC approves Grayscale’s GDLC ETF but stays quiet on appeal plans.
- BTC struggles as crypto tax relief stays off the table and ETF outflows return after 16-day streak.
- XRP and BTC prices recover technically, but clarity awaits industry news and economic signals.
Crypto markets portray cautious optimism early Wednesday, after slipping for two consecutive days. Traders are closely watching the final passage of President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” amid ongoing uncertainty over crypto tax exemptions. Adding to the positive mood, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains a “wait and see” stance, hinting at possible rate cuts in July, while Israel signals readiness for a 60-day ceasefire with Iran, easing geopolitical tensions.
Beyond these macro factors, industry news around the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and developments with U.S. spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are also helping to steady Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD) prices.
As a result, Bitcoin gains over 1%, climbing to $106,900 and ending its two-day losing streak whereas Ripple also bounced back, rising to $2.19 and reversing the previous day’s losses by the press time.
Let’s dive into the key catalysts driving today’s market movement.
Bitcoin ignores crypto tax setback and first ETF outflow in 17 days
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate narrowly passed Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB), with two Republicans voting against it and Elon Musk voicing strong criticism. The bill now returns to the House for final approval before heading to Trump’s desk to be signed into law.
However, hopes for crypto tax relief faded as the bill passed without any exemptions for digital assets. Earlier, Senator Cynthia Lummis had hinted at addressing the tax burden on crypto miners and stakers, raising industry hopes—but no favorable changes made it into the final version.
The disappointment from tax relief might have portrayed the institutional player’s profit-booking as the U.S. Spot BTC ETFs witnessed the first daily outflow in 17 days on July 1, 2025, amounting to $342.25 million per the SoSoValue data.
Technical Analysis
While fundamentals are mixed for Bitcoin buyers, technical signals point to a cautious upside outlook.
BTC/USD: Daily Chart Hints at Gradual Upside
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) recovers toward a five-week resistance near $108,750, while staying beneath an upward-sloping trend line resistance stretched from December 2024, around $113,700—indicating bulls’ cautious approach.
However, BTC remains strong above the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), near $100,600 and $94,900 respectively, with key downside support at a six-month-old horizontal zone near $89,000.
A positive 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals add strength to the upside bias.
Overall, BTC stays on the front foot, but reaching a new record high appears challenging in the near term.
Ripple bulls struggle amid jump in XRP-ETF odds, SEC appeal tension
Optimism around a U.S. XRP-spot ETF surged on Tuesday after the SEC approved Grayscale’s proposal to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into an ETF. The new fund will give investors exposure to major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Solana—and notably, XRP.
The move is being seen as a green light for pending XRP-spot ETF applications, with final deadlines set for October 17. In response, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas raised the odds of approval by year-end to 95%.
While BlackRock hasn’t filed for an XRP-spot ETF yet, speculation is building that it might do so once the SEC vs. Ripple case is fully resolved—a factor that continues to boost XRP’s momentum.
Meanwhile, the SEC has yet to confirm whether it will withdraw its appeal against the ruling on Ripple’s programmatic XRP sales, even after Ripple backed off its cross-appeal. A withdrawal could clear the path for more ETF approvals.
All eyes are now on the SEC’s closed meeting scheduled for July 3, where Chair Paul Atkins and other commissioners may vote on ending the appeal—potentially giving XRP another bullish push.
Technical Analysis
While fundamentals are mixed for Bitcoin buyers, technical signals point to a cautious upside outlook.
XRP/USD: Daily Chart Portrays Bullish Bias
Source: TradingView
Ripple (XRP/USD) is reversing the previous day’s pullback from the 100-day EMA of $2.22 as of press time. A decisive breakout above this EMA hurdle could shift focus toward the six-month resistance trendline near $2.37.
That said, a daily close past $2.37 could open the XRP’s path toward the $2.65 zone—capped by multiple highs since March. Beyond that, bulls may eye the $3.00 psychological barrier, with early 2025 highs near $3.40 as the next major target.
On the flip side, a close below the 200-day EMA at $2.10 could drag XRP toward the monthly low at $1.91, and potentially down to a strong support zone between $1.77 and $1.61—levels last seen seven months ago.
Momentum indicators support the bullish case: the 14-day RSI remains above 50 and firm, while MACD trends higher—suggesting XRP is drawing strength from improving fundamentals and may continue its upward path.
Conclusion
Despite regulatory headwinds and tax letdowns, crypto markets are quietly regaining strength. Bitcoin shrugged off its first ETF outflow in 17 days to reclaim $106K, backed by solid technicals and institutional interest. Ripple is gaining traction on rising XRP-ETF optimism—even as the SEC appeal keeps legal uncertainty in play.
With momentum building and technical indicators flashing green, BTC and XRP look primed for further upside—but they need a fresh catalyst. All eyes are now on the SEC’s July 3 closed-door meeting, the fate of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” and Thursday’s key U.S. jobs data.
