Key Takeaways:
- El Salvador’s Bitcoin treasury, currently worth $709M (6,281 BTC), saw betting odds of its treasury hitting $1 billion by December 2025 surge from 24.7% to 36% on predictions market platform Kalshi.
- President Bukele amplified the trend with a tweet, prompting rival Polymarket to launch a similar market where odds stood at 43%.
- Despite the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) related controversy over halted purchases, El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office reported buying 30 BTC in the past 30 days.
The President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, has drawn the attention of the crypto market with his recent tweet. Prediction markets platform Kalshi, which was tracking El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) treasury, currently valued at $709 million (6,281.18 BTC), has increased the odds of the treasury reaching $1 billion by December 2025 from 24.7% to 36% within one day.
President Bukele was quick to notice this and tweeted, “I could do the funniest thing right now” while sharing activity on Kalshi’s betting platform.
Meanwhile, rival platform Polymarket quickly launched a similar contract, where the odds of El Salvador crossing $1 billion in BTC by December 2025 stood at 43%. Both platforms have seen increased activity since Bukele’s post.
Prediction Markets Compete
Kalshi’s market, active since mid-August, had shown steady odds around 18–24% until the recent spike. Polymarket only introduced its version following Bukele’s tweet, showcasing how his posts often influence the broader crypto narrative.
The surge in betting activity comes despite controversy around El Salvador’s BTC strategy. In July, officials from the central bank and finance ministry told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the country had stopped BTC purchases after securing a $1.4 billion loan. Bukele, however, and El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office continued to announce BTC acquisitions online, raising doubts about official reporting.
The ‘National Bitcoin Office’, or ONBTC which serves as a dedicated administrative organization to oversee local cryptocurrency projects in the region. According to its dashboard, the El Salvador government purchased 30 BTC over the last 30 days.
Growing Attention
As the debate continues, the country’s Bitcoin gamble remains a focal point in crypto markets. For El Salvador, breaking the $1 billion threshold would be a symbolic victory for Bukele’s high-stakes BTC bet, although the outcome could be determined by both market prices and government policies.
