Key Takeaways
- Softer U.S. hiring data pulled markets back into risk, with investors leaning toward a rate cut next week.
- Diplomatic channels around Ukraine stayed open, which helped calm geopolitical nerves even without major progress.
- Bonds and oil moved with the shift in sentiment, pointing to expectations of easier policy and firm demand.
- Bitcoin and major altcoins strengthened as traders moved back into larger tokens alongside the broader risk rally.
On December 4, markets leaned toward risk after a softer U.S. hiring numbers shifted expectations around the Federal Reserve’s near-term stance.
Equities pushed higher with small caps out front, while the dollar and the front end of the Treasury curve slipped as investors reassessed the labor picture and concluded that the next move in policy is more likely to be an easing.
On the diplomatic front, Moscow’s response to Washington regarding the latest Ukraine proposals added a layer of cautious stability. The Kremlin acknowledged that some elements were workable and others were not, yet stressed that technical discussions would continue, with U.S. envoys expected to return for further rounds.
On the economic front, the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls dropping by 32,000 in November, the sharpest fall since March 2023, and missed the expectations for a 10,000 increase after October’s upwardly revised 47,000 gain.
Most of the weakness came from the small-business side of the economy: small firms cut around 120,000 jobs, while mid-sized companies added 51,000 and large employers brought on another 39,000.
Economists said that split made sense given how import tariffs have been squeezing smaller operators much harder than bigger ones with more pricing power.
Commodities moved with the broader mood in markets, with oil drifting higher as Brent traded near $62.75 and gold firmed in the low $4,200s, supported by a softer dollar and a sense that the Fed may be edging toward an easier stance.
In Crypto, Bitcoin surged toward $93,619, up 1.99%, as risk appetite returned across markets, while Ethereum pushed to roughly $3,169.85, climbing 5.12%, and XRP advanced to about $2.20 with a 1.57% gain.
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