Key Takeaways
- $4.03B worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on Friday.
- Deribit bitcoin options data highlights the max pain price at $106,000.
- The put/call ratio now sits at 0.64, which suggests bullish market sentiment for the asset.
Bitcoin trades around $97,000 as market participants gear up for the weekly options expiry on Friday. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency fell by more than 2% in the past 24 hours. The biggest Bitcoin and Ethereum options exchange, Deribit, indicates that there are 38,868 total open contracts broken down into 23,743 calls and 15,125 puts. The previous weekly expiry saw a total of $4.5 billion in contracts.
Options Positioning Analysis
In-the-Money (ITM) Calls
A total of 860.8 ITM call contracts are worth $89,314,378.53 (3.63%) of total notional. All of these positions cluster at current spot prices, which convey firm bullish confidence amid recent market dips.
Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Calls
OTM calls with a total of 22,882 contracts valued at $2,374,177,055.62 (96.37%). OTM open interest stays heavy between the bitcoin price range of $110K and $120K strikes, which suggests that traders are centered on a rebound in price or sell-off volatility to move price higher.
Total Notional Value in Calls: $2,463,491,434.15
In-the-Money (ITM) Puts
The ITM put component was 4,188.2 contracts worth $434,556,784.56 (27.69%). The sizable put exposure in ITM puts indicates institutional hedging against short-term downside risk.
Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Puts
OTM puts a total of 10,937 contracts worth $1,134,784,417.43 (72.31%) concentrated in strikes that range from $90K to $105K. The structure protects against mild corrections, not a swift price crash.
Total Notional Value in Puts: $1,569,341,201.99
Puts Dominate ITM, Calls Rule OTM
Overall, 12.99% of open contracts are in the money (ITM), while 87.01% are out of the money (OTM).
ITM Total: 5,049.0 contracted, $523,871,163.09
OTM Total: 33,819 contracts, $3,508,961,473.05
The tilt is towards speculation, with 87.01% in OTM. OTM calls above $110,000 are placed in anticipation of a rally. OTM puts below $105,000 are to hedge pullbacks. Weekly expiries drive strategy and are typically directional.
Open Interest in Expiration
The November 14 expiry leads with 38,868 contracts and $4.03 billion notional. ITM exposure reaches 12.99%, with calls at 3.63% and puts at 27.69%. Longer-dated expiries like December remain under 10K contracts combined, keeping focus sharp on the weekly roll.
Market Outlook
The $106,000 maximum pain price is where most contracts expire worthless and typically keeps Bitcoin hovering around current levels until the expiry. The weekly event has $4.03 billion notional, which is less than monthly rolls but leaves BTC also exposed to gamma squeezes and exacerbating volatility.
Bitcoin ETF inflows were $1.19 billion over the prior month, further contributing to positive sentiment. With 87.01% of positions out-of-the-money and put-call ratios below 1, the outlook for volatility is increasing. In the case of BTC breaking over $110,000, a call delta hedge response may push Bitcoin toward the $115,000 resistance area. On the other side, if the bitcoin price breaks down below $103,000, put-driven selling pressure may take it down to the $98,000 support area.
