Risk appetite improved as talk of a possible pause in the Middle East conflict pushed oil lower, lifted some equity markets, and helped crypto extend its rebound, while gold rose as traders trimmed bets on more rate hikes.
Crypto
The total crypto market cap stands at $2.45 trillion, up 0.68% on the day, while the Fear & Greed Index is at 36, still showing fear. The Altcoin Season Index is at 49/100, which points to a market still led by Bitcoin, and average RSI levels are near neutral, showing the market is recovering but not stretched.
Bitcoin trades at $71,470, up 1.35%, with Ethereum at $2,186, up 1.38%. BNB is at $647, also up 1.38%, while Solana is at $92.7, up 2.10%, showing buyers are moving back into large-cap coins beyond Bitcoin as well.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows were mixed over the last three sessions, as the group posted a strong $167.2 million inflow, led by $160.8 million into IBIT, before turning to a $66.6 million outflow in the latest session, including $47 million out of IBIT and $45.3 million from FBTC.
Commodities
Oil prices fell back from recent highs as headlines around a possible ceasefire eased some supply fears. Brent crude is at $97.86, down 1.74%, while WTI is at $86.99, down 1.57%, with both holding at around high levels, despite pulling back as traders weigh the chance that supply routes in the Hormuz Strait may avoid a deeper disruption.
Gold is up 1.99% at $4,558 and has bounced from recent lows as lower oil prices eased some inflation fears and reduced pressure for more rate hikes. At the same time, the metal is still drawing support from geopolitical risk.
Stock Market Indices
U.S. equities are slightly lower, with the S&P 500 at 6,556, down 0.37%, the Dow Jones at 46,124, down 0.18%, and the Nasdaq at 21,761, down 0.84%. The move points to some selling in higher-growth tech shares as investors wait for a clearer read on rates, oil, and headline risk.
In Europe, the FTSE 100 is up 0.72% at 10,081, helped by strength in commodity-linked shares. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 0.15% at 53,560, showing a modest recovery as markets react to the softer oil move.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
On the diplomatic front, markets are reacting to reports that the United States sent Iran a 15-point proposal and is pushing for a month-long ceasefire, which has helped ease immediate fears around oil supply, even as Tehran has denied active negotiations.
However, despite reports of ongoing negotiations, attacks in the region are still continuing, which keeps investors cautious and limits how far relief can go.
On the economic front, lower oil prices have reduced some of the pressure on inflation expectations, leading markets to scale back bets on more aggressive rate hikes, dragging bond yields lower.
In the U.S, investors are still watching the Federal Reserve closely for signs on whether officials are prepared to stay on hold for longer as they balance sticky inflation against the market impact of war-driven energy shocks.
