Oil prices jumped, gold climbed and global stocks fell on Monday as conflict involving Iran, Israel, Lebanon and the wider Gulf region raised the risk of disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while bitcoin held above $66,000 in a crypto market still dominated by fear.
Crypto
Total crypto market capitalization is about $2.29 trillion, down roughly 1.2% on the day, with sentiment pinned in “extreme fear” at 15 on the Fear & Greed Index, while the Altcoin Season Index at 34 and the Average Market RSI around 48 suggest market conditions are neutral rather than moving in either direction.
Bitcoin trades near $66,400, up just under 1% over 24 hours and outperforming most risk assets despite the geopolitical shock. Ethereum is around $1,960 with gains close to 1%, BNB is near $621, while Solana is softer at about $83.6.
After net inflows of roughly $507 million on Feb. 25 and $254 million on Feb. 26, the spot bitcoin ETF complex has shifted from heavy buying to a modest outflow, with the group seeing about $27.5 million in redemptions on Feb. 27 and the largest fund, IBIT, taking in around $241 million and $276 million on the first two days before a roughly $33 million outflow.
Commodities
Oil is giving the clearest read on the new risk environment, with U.S. crude trading around $71.8 a barrel, up nearly 6.8% on the day, while Brent is near $78.8 after briefly rising above $82 earlier in the session. Traders are focused on the Strait of Hormuz, where ship-tracking data show more oil tankers paused on both sides as intensified war in the region has led many vessels to halt or delay movement until tensions deescalate.
Gold trades around $5,378 an ounce, up almost 1.8% and at its highest in about four weeks as investors rotate into safe-haven assets. Silver is up about 1.3% near $95, with other precious metals broadly supported as markets reassess inflation and global risks.
Stock Market Indices
Equities are under pressure across the board, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% near 6,879, the Dow Jones off about 1.1% at 48,978 and the Nasdaq Composite lower by 0.9% at 22,668, led by selling in airlines, banks and crowded artificial-intelligence trades as investors rotate from growth and financials toward defensives, cash and hard assets.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops just over 2% to roughly 57,900, hit by higher import costs and weaker travel sentiment. In Europe, the FTSE 100 slips 0.3% to around 10,845, where gains in energy stocks help limit the decline but are not enough to offset broader risk aversion.
Geopolitics & Market Movers
On the diplomatic front, markets are reacting to continued air and missile strikes between Iran, Israel, Lebanon and regional powers, with analysts warning that any prolonged disruption to oil and gas shipments through the area could resemble past energy shocks. Oil at current prices is already putting extra pressure on households, companies and governments, and traders are again talking about $90–$100 a barrel if shipping problems do not ease.
On the economic front, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hover near 3.97% after briefly touching a three-month low, as investors weigh strong demand for safe-haven assets against the risk that higher energy costs keep inflation elevated, while Fed funds futures still price roughly a 50% chance of the first rate cut in June and about 60 basis points of easing this year.
In Washington, the focus is shifting to how the central bank will balance war-related price pressures with a still-fragile labour market, leaving investors braced for a choppy week of ISM surveys and the upcoming payrolls report.
