Risk appetite softened on Friday as markets digested Trump’s Fed chair decision, a slight easing of Iran war fears, and a sharp reversal in gold, leaving oil off recent highs, crypto under pressure, and equities mixed.
Crypto
The total crypto market cap has slipped to about $2.8 trillion, down just over 6% in the last day, with the Fear & Greed Index back at 28 (“Fear”), the Altcoin Season Index at 30, and the average market RSI near 34, all pointing to an oversold market that is led by Bitcoin rather than altcoins.
Bitcoin trades around $82,300, down about 6.3% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum is near $2,720 after a 7.6% dip, and Solana trades around $115, down a bit more than 6% on the day and about 9% over the week.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged one of their heaviest down days since launch: cumulative net inflows sit near $55.9 billion, but yesterday alone saw about $818 million in net outflows, including roughly $318 million from IBIT.
Commodities
Oil is easing after a strong run. Brent is trading around $69.6 a barrel, down from Thursday’s close at its highest level since July 2025, while WTI is near $64.2. Even with today’s pullback, Brent is still up about 14–15% in January and WTI roughly 12%, as traders weigh supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela against signs that Washington may prefer talks, not immediate strikes, in its standoff with Iran.
Gold is seeing a similar reversal, with spot prices dropping more than 7% to just under $5,000 an ounce after hitting a record high near $5,595 on Thursday before bouncing back to around $5,130.
Silver is also down by double digits on the day, dropping below the $100 mark before rebounding to $103, as profit-taking, a stronger dollar, and speculation that Trump may appoint former Fed governor Kevin Warsh weigh on the precious-metals scene.
Stock Market Indices
In the U.S., the Dow Jones closed slightly higher at about 49,072 (+0.1%), while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to around 6,969 and the Nasdaq fell 0.7% to roughly 23,685 as investors continued to trim big-cap tech exposure.
Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged down 0.1% to about 53,323, pausing after a strong run, while London’s FTSE 100 inched up 0.1% to just over 10,180, supported by heavyweight energy and mining names that benefit from higher commodity prices even after today’s pullback.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
On the diplomatic front, the main geopolitical focus remains Iran. Trump has warned of a “massive armada” heading toward the region but also said he is ready to talk if Tehran accepts “no nuclear weapons” and stops violent crackdowns on protesters. Markets currently assume any U.S. or Israeli action would be targeted and short, which helps explain why oil is easing rather than spiking higher.
The other main focus is the diplomatic “pivot to China” by U.S. allies, such as the U.K. and Canada, with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to China delivering some trade and visa agreements, yet highlighting the limits of relying on China’s export-driven economy while Western governments try to protect their own industries, according to Reuters.
On the economic front, Trump has endorsed a Senate deal to avoid an immediate government shutdown, though a brief technical lapse in funding is still possible as the House returns from break. The agreement separates contentious immigration-enforcement issues from the main spending bill and gives negotiators two more weeks to work on the Department of Homeland Security budget.
In rates, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has moved toward 4.3% as traders weigh the chance of a more hawkish Fed balance-sheet stance under a new chair, but futures still see a high probability that policy rates stay unchanged at the March meeting.
