Global markets are treading cautiously as weak Japanese growth, record Russian oil flows to China, and a firmer dollar weigh on risk appetite, leaving gold hovering near $5,000 and crypto under pressure while investors wait for fresh U.S. data and central bank signals.
Crypto
Total crypto market capitalization has slipped to about $2.36 trillion, down just over 2% on the day, with the Fear & Greed Index at 12, firmly in “extreme fear,” even as the Altcoin Season Index sits at 31/100, and the average crypto RSI hovers near a neutral 50.8.
Bitcoin trades around $68,700, down roughly 2% over 24 hours, while Ethereum hovers near $1,985 and Solana lags at about $85.9, lower by nearly 3.7%.
Spot ETF flows underline the more defensive tone. After recording a $166 million net inflow on 10 February, the last three sessions posted outflows of about $276 million and $410 million before a modest $15 million net inflow yesterday.
Across those three days, IBIT saw roughly $240 million of redemptions, including about $158 million on 12 February alone, partly offset by small inflows on Friday.
Commodities
U.S. markets are closed for Presidents’ Day, and much of Asia is shut for Lunar New Year, which is thinning liquidity and keeping gold locked around the $5,000 mark and silver around $77. Meanwhile, traders are weighing softer-than-expected U.S. inflation against stronger jobs data and remarks from Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee that rates could come down, but not quickly.
Oil remains under pressure, with WTI around $62.7 a barrel and Brent hovering at $67.8, even as new data show Russian crude shipments to China hitting a record above 2 million barrels per day this month.
Stock Market Indices
In the U.S., the S&P 500 trades at 6,836.18 (+0.05%) and the Dow at 49,500.93 (+0.10%), while the Nasdaq slips to 22,546.67 (-0.22%), pointing to a mild rotation out of growth stocks. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 stands at 57,010.00 (+0.19%), and in Europe, the FTSE 100 is at 10,467.10 (+0.15%) as investors wait for Friday’s manufacturing surveys and U.S. Q4 GDP.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
On the diplomatic front, negotiations around Iran’s nuclear program have prompted Tehran to signal interest in a deal that would deliver economic benefits for both sides, yet the risk of U.S. military action still hangs over the market and has pushed Chinese refiners to favor Russian barrels over Iranian supply.
As a secondary flashpoint, the mood at the Munich Security Conference remains uneasy despite a softer tone from Washington, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio combining reassurances about a shared Western “civilization” with harder lines on immigration and culture, reinforcing European leaders’ belief that they must prepare for a more self-reliant defense posture.
On the economic front, investors are digesting Japan’s weak GDP and a mixed batch of U.S. numbers, where strong labor data offsets cooling inflation. Futures markets now largely expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged in March and begin cutting later in the year.
