Risk sentiment stayed fragile on Tuesday as Trump’s tariff shock, a firmer dollar, and Middle East tension weighed on risk assets, pulling U.S. equities and crypto lower while oil inched up and gold cooled off from an early spike.
Crypto
Crypto’s total market capitalization slid to about $2.19 trillion, down 4.2% on the day, with the Fear & Greed Index deep in “extreme fear” at 11, the Altcoin Season Index at 34 still favoring Bitcoin over altcoins, and the average crypto RSI near 37.5, signaling broadly oversold conditions across the market.
Bitcoin trades around $63,231, down 2.2% over 24 hours, while Ethereum holds near $1,826, off 1.6%. Solana is around $76.7 (-1.6%), and BNB is near $588.5 (-1.3%), with Bitcoin dominance edging down to 58.3%.
In spot Bitcoin ETFs, flows have turned sharply negative again: total products saw about $203.8 million in net outflows on Feb. 23 after an $88.1 million inflow on Feb. 20 and a $165.8 million outflow on Feb. 19.
Commodities
In commodities, oil is grinding higher as markets attempt to envision scenarios for a U.S.–Iran confrontation and possible disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. WTI trades near $66.40 a barrel, up around 0.2% on the day, while Brent hovers around $71.62, barely higher but holding near recent highs.
Gold is consolidating after a brief run to a three-week high above $5,240, with spot prices dipping back near $5,172, off about 1% as profit-taking and a slightly stronger dollar coincide.
Stock Market Indices
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed near 6,837, down 1.0%; the Dow Jones at about 48,804 (-1.7%); and the Nasdaq around 22,627 (-1.1%), as another AI-linked selloff hit crowded tech names.
Flows show a rotation out of high-multiple software and AI beneficiaries into defensives and cash, as investors reassess just how far the “AI everything” trade can stretch.
In Asia, the Nikkei 225 outperformed, adding 0.4% to about 57,570 as Japan reopened from holidays, while in Europe the FTSE hovered around 10,665, down 0.2%, with exporters trying to understand the true extent of renewed U.S. tariff risk.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
On the diplomatic front, markets are juggling reports of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva with analysis of how any clash could threaten up to a fifth of global crude flows through Hormuz, even if strategic reserves in the U.S. and China offer a buffer.
A secondary flashpoint is trade policy: after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, he imposed a new global 10% levy under Section 122, then announced plans to lift it to 15%, and warned countries not to “play games” with existing trade deals. Japan, Taiwan, and Europe are all seeking assurances, while China has escalated tensions by restricting dual-use exports to Japanese entities.
On the economic front, investors are watching how tariffs might feed into inflation and growth just as rate-cut hopes were stabilizing, with central banks now having to weigh protectionist shocks alongside tight labor markets.
