Markets on Wednesday, February 18, traded cautiously as Geneva talks on Iran and Ukraine pulled oil toward two-week lows, lifted gold from Tuesday’s slide, and left Bitcoin near $68,000 in thin holiday trading.
Crypto
Total crypto market capitalization is about $2.34 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index at 12 (extreme fear), the Altcoin Season Index at 35, and the average crypto RSI near 50.9, pointing to neutral positioning, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin trades around $68,183, with Ethereum firmer near $2,018, up about 2.4% on the day, and Solana around $85.6 with a small rise, showing that large caps are holding up better than most smaller coins and that traders are still favoring the most liquid names over broad risk.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now absorbed roughly $54.6 billion of net inflows since launch, but the last session showed some selling. Daily net flow was about -$105 million, driven mainly by a $119.7 million outflow from IBIT, while funds such as FBTC and BTCW posted smaller inflows that softened the hit.
Commodities
Brent crude is around $67.57 a barrel and WTI about $62.45, both close to their lowest levels in two weeks after a roughly 2% fall on Tuesday, as traders are trying to balance early progress in U.S.–Iran nuclear talks, which could eventually ease supply fears, with ongoing military activity in the region and analysis that still puts the chance of U.S. strikes on Iran at well above 50%.
Gold is recovering after Tuesday’s sharp slide, with spot bullion rising about 1.2% to $4,934 an ounce, as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s January minutes and Friday’s U.S. PCE inflation data to clarify the timing and pace of rate cuts.
Stock Market Indices
U.S. equity benchmarks are inching higher, with the S&P 500 hovering around 6,843 (+0.1%), the Dow Jones near 49,533 with a small gain, and the Nasdaq at about 22,578, up roughly 0.1–0.2%. Under the surface, there are signs of mild rotation away from the most expensive AI-linked tech stocks toward broader cyclicals as investors question stretched valuations but still expect easier policy later this year.
In Asia, Nikkei 225 future trades near 57,350, up about 0.2%, supported by hopes that Japanese tech firms will benefit from new U.S.–Japan projects, as many regional markets remain shut for Lunar New Year. In Europe, FTSE futures hover around 10,624 (+0.5%), showing firmer moves as traders wait for UK and French inflation data and weigh earlier signs of softer UK employment.
Geopolitics & Market Sentiment
On the diplomatic front, Iran and the United States, meeting in Geneva, say they have agreed on “guiding principles” for their nuclear talks, which has briefly reduced fears of an immediate clash but still leaves a long and uncertain road to any full deal. Also in Geneva, U.S.-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine resume, with President Zelenskiy publicly rejecting what he sees as unfair pressure from Washington to give ground.
There is also debate over whether Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, can effectively manage both tracks at once, given criticism that the U.S. diplomatic team is stretched and lacks depth after years of staff cuts.
On the economic side, investors are focused on the Fed’s January minutes and upcoming PCE inflation release, with markets still expecting the first U.S. rate cut around June. However, comments from officials such as Austan Goolsbee, who is open to “several” cuts if inflation keeps falling, and Michael Barr, who urges caution, show that the debate inside the Fed is active.
Abroad, the weaker UK labor data supports the idea that global policy is slowly shifting toward easier conditions, but not yet quickly enough to remove all growth and inflation worries. For now, that mix of slow diplomacy, mixed data, and high valuations is keeping risk appetite measured rather than elevated.
