On Thursday, March 26, markets stayed cautious as rising tensions sent oil sharply higher, weighed on stocks and bonds, and kept investors leaning defensive despite solid U.S data and a steady earnings backdrop.
Crypto
Crypto turned lower again, with total market value at $2.37 trillion, down 2.89% over the past 24 hours. Sentiment is still subdued: the Fear & Greed Index stands at 30, the Altcoin Season Index is at 50/100, and the average crypto RSI is near 41.9, signaling a market that is cautious and indecisive rather than in full retreat.
Bitcoin trades at $69,333, down 2.76% and holding just below key levels, while Ethereum is off 4.41% at $2,073, BNB is down 2.79% near $629, and Solana leads losses among the majors, falling 4.51% to $87.50 as risk appetite fades across altcoins.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain mixed but negative on balance over the last three reported sessions, with total inflows of $175.0 million against total outflows of $233.9 million, leaving a net outflow of $58.9 million overall, with IBIT alone recording $160.8 million in inflows and $75.4 million in outflows across the same timeline, pointing to selective but less consistent institutional demand.
Commodities
Oil is again the clearest expression of market stress. WTI trades at $94.43, up 3.43% over 24 hours, while Brent stands at $105.80, up 3.98%, with both benchmarks pushing back toward recent highs as traders price in the risk of deeper supply disruption from the Middle East and the ongoing strain around the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold, by contrast, is not acting like a classic safe haven today, falling 1.44% to $4,440 and pulling back from recent highs as higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar weigh on demand.
Stock Market Indices
U.S. equities are showing resilience even as the broader tone stays cautious. The S&P 500 is up 0.54% at 6,591.89, the Dow Jones gained 0.66% to 46,429.49, and the Nasdaq added 0.77% to 21,929.83.
Outside the U.S., the tone is weaker. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.85% to 52,770, while the FTSE 100 dropped 1.22% to 9,967.5, reflecting greater sensitivity to energy costs, external demand, and global trade disruption.
Market Digest: Geopolitics & Market Movers
On the diplomatic front, the Iran conflict remains the main market driver, with hopes of a near-term ceasefire fading as Tehran reviews a U.S. proposal without entering direct talks.
Meanwhile, Washington’s tougher tone and military buildup are keeping the risk premium elevated, leaving investors increasingly focused not just on the war itself but on the growing risk that the resulting energy shock lasts longer than first expected.
Additionally, rising fuel and freight costs are beginning to feed into supply chains, retail pricing, and consumer sentiment, particularly in Europe and Asia, where companies are already warning that a prolonged conflict could lift costs and weaken demand.
On the economic front, central banks are becoming less able to look through inflation risk, as higher oil prices are pushing yields up and steadily eroding hopes for rate cuts, with markets now reassessing whether policy will stay restrictive for longer.
