Summary
- Market roundup for Thursday highlights cautious optimism, as U.S. CPI and Jobless Claims defend dovish Fed bets and weigh the Dollar.
- US CPI hit seven-month high, Jobless Claims jumped to the highest since June 2023.
- Traders remain convinced of witnessing three Fed rate cuts of 0.25% in 2025, fears of 0.50% rate cut in September drown USD.
- ECB announced no rate cut, but President Lagarde cited growth fears and capped Euro gains.
- Trade/geopolitical fears prevail but have gained little attention amid a long economic calendar.
- Cryptocurrencies edge higher amid pro-industry moves, mourning over Charlie Kirk’s death continues.
- Equities stay firmer, with all three benchmarks hitting record tops, eyeing Adobe earnings and risk catalysts.
Market Roundup for Thursday: U.S. Data Keeps Fed Doves Happy
Market Sentiment remains slightly upbeat early Thursday morning in New York as the latest round of U.S. inflation and employment clues confirm the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bias ahead of next week’s monetary policy meeting. In doing so, the traders pay little heed to the looming trade and geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia, Israel and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin (BTC) remains mildly bid around $114,300, after hitting the weekly top near $114,730, whereas the spot Gold (XAU) posts modest losses around $3,630, portraying a three-day range after hitting the all-time high. That said, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) posts the first daily loss in three, down 0.27% intraday near 97.55 at the latest, whereas the U.S. equities post all-time highs.
U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to a seven-month high of 0.4% Month-over-Month (MoM) and 2.9% Year-over-Year (YoY) in August. The CPI readings came well beyond the previous readings of 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY, versus 0.3% and 2.9% respective market consensus.
Meanwhile, the Core CPI (CPI ex Food & Energy) met analysts’ estimations of remaining unchanged at 0.3% and 3.1% respectively.
That said, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 263K for the week ended on September 09, the highest since June 2023, versus 236K (revised) prior and 235K market forecasts.
With this, the U.S. inflation figures once again came out as sticky, and the employment details joined the latest streak of downbeat outcomes, favoring the dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) bias and weighing on the U.S. Dollar after the release. The market currently bets on a 0.25% rate cut at each of the Fed’s three remaining policy meetings in 2025, with a 10% chance of a 0.50% cut in September.
On a different page, the European Central Bank (ECB) matched market forecasts and kept the current monetary policy unchanged, allowing Euro (EUR) to snap a two-day losing streak. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference cited growth fears and tamed the regional currency’s gains afterward.
Elsewhere, the White House assured Doha that Wednesday’s Israeli blasts won’t happen again and criticized Tehran’s attack, while President Trump also accused Russia of violating Polish airspace. On the same line, the international community also sought a reaction to the Russian attack on Poland, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Crypto, Equity Update
Crypto traders remain modestly optimistic as pro-industry news join the dovish Fed bets, but the cyber thefts and chatter about the Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) challenge positive vibes.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) poured cold water on the face of Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) optimism by delaying approval of the Ethereum staking bids from major financial firms, like Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, and BlackRock.
Elsewhere, India cites systemic financial risks to avoid introducing comprehensive legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies. The global leader in crypto adoption rather chooses to maintain partial oversight, per Reuters. The news also includes the Indian government citing stablecoins as a threat to national payment systems and monetary control.
Also read: India Unlikely to Regulate Crypto Fully Amid Fears of Financial System Exposure
Meanwhile, a Central Asian Country, Kyrgyzstan, passed a law to establish a national cryptocurrency reserve and introduce state-managed crypto mining. The law allows issuance of fully asset-backed stablecoins and real-world asset tokens, including in foreign currencies.
More Details: Another Central Asian Country Joins the Race With a Crypto Reserve; What’s Inside the Law
On a grim note, a U.S. Bitcoin supporter and a conservative activist, Charlie Kirk, was killed with a gunshot in neck during a speech at the Utah Valley University. Tragically, the death of Turning Point USA’s founder allowed memecoin developers to introduce CHARLIE token that shot a market cap of $74.9 million on the first day.
Also read: ‘Justice Movement’: IRYNA and CHARLIE Token Spark Outrage After Tragic Deaths
Belarus continues its shift toward digital assets amid sanctions linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, with President Alexander Lukashenko calling crypto “strategic”. The Belarusian leader ordered banks to expand crypto participation and tokenization to bypass sanctions and stabilize the economy.
Read: Lukashenko Orders Belarusian Banks to Expand Crypto and Tokenization Amid Sanctions
Talking about equities, Wall Street benchmarks begin Wednesday’s trading on a positive note, backed by dovish Fed bets and upbeat performance by technology shares. This allows Dow Jones to regain upside momentum, after closing with mild losses the previous day, up over 1.00% intraday to hit record high, whereas S&P 500 and Nasdaq also refresh their all-time highs (ATHs) by press time.
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both offered a record high closing, but Dow Jones ended the day with mild losses, maybe because of the U.S. data and geopolitical fears. That said, a 36% jump in Oracle shares gained the market’s attention the previous day, backed by an upbeat order book.
Latest Moves of Key Assets
- Gold retreats, printing mild losses near $3,633 within its three-day trading range after hitting an ATH.
- Bitcoin (BTC) seesaws at a two-week high, mildly bid around $114,500 as we write.
- Ethereum (ETH) prints a three-day uptrend, up 1.80% intraday near $4,430, after hitting a weekly high near $4,476 earlier in the day.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) drops back, snaps two-day winning streak with 0.30% intraday loss to 97.53 as we write.
- Wall Street stays firmer, with Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all three refreshing record tops.
- WTI Crude Oil snaps three-day winning streak, down 2.0% around $62.50 at the latest.
Positioning for FOMC Begins…
With this week’s key data already out and loud, favoring the dovish Fed bets and luring the U.S. Dollar sellers, market players may position for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
This might allow the USD to pare some of its latest losses, should Friday’s mid-tier consumer-centric data flash upbeat prints. Also likely to defend the Greenback might be a sudden shift in the market sentiment, from the current euphoria among the equity traders to a pause due to escalating trade and geopolitical tensions. The cryptocurrencies, however, are likely to edge higher and end the week on a positive note, unless any dramatic change in the market’s risk complex appears.
Notably, today’s aftermarket earnings from Adobe and potential Trump statements after sticky inflation and a downbeat jobs report could entertain intraday traders.
Also read: Cryptocurrency Weekly Price Prediction: BTC, XRP Rebound, But ETH Lags, amid Fed Rate Cut Buzz
