Summary
- Thursday’s market roundup highlights cautious optimism as U.S. President tames trade and geopolitical fears.
- Anxiety around Fed’s next move crosses hopes of more rate cuts amid the latest mixed U.S. data and dovish statements from officials.
- Bitcoin renews weekly high, while Gold also rises and U.S. Dollar edges lower as New York trading bell rings.
- McDonald’s delivers strong earnings, Disney falls short on revenue, and crypto drivers stay mixed.
Thursday’s Market Roundup: Cautious Optimism Prevails
Market’s risk profile remains modestly positive early Thursday as the White House extends tariff pause on China and confirms most trade deals are complete. Also helping the sentiment was the dovish Federal Reserve outlook. Additionally, renewed hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace initiative and upbeat performance of the U.S. technology sector companies, led by Apple, as well as a mostly positive U.S. earnings season, offered extra support to the slightly positive sentiment.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin (BTC) gains over 1.0% to hit a weekly high above $116k, whereas the spot gold price (XAU) also jumps to a fortnightly high before retreating to $3,385, still up 0.40% intraday at the latest. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) seesaws at the weekly low surrounding 98.35.
Talking about the data, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims inched up to 226K from 218K, versus 221K prior, for the week ending on August 02. Further, the preliminary readings of the second quarter (Q2) Nonfarm Productivity came in at 2.4% versus 2.5% expected and -1.8% prior (revised), whereas the Q2 Unit Labor Costs rose past 1.5% market forecasts to 1.6% but lagged behind 6.9% previous reading (revised).
Elsewhere, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick highlighted the possibility of extending the China tariff deadline by 90 days, versus the original limit of August 12. On the same line, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that trade deals are largely done. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy next week and raised hopes of an end to the prolonged, deadly war.
It’s worth noting that dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook eased risk-off sentiment during late Wednesday and early Thursday.
Their tone, along with weak U.S. employment and activity data, strengthened market expectations for a 0.25% interest rate cut in September, with two more cuts expected in 2025. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s previous defense of the data-dependency, as he reiterated in his post-FOMC press conference, tested the policy doves.
Elsewhere, U.S. President Donald Trump shook global markets on Wednesday and carried the momentum into Thursday with fresh tariff measures and political plans. He pushed Russia toward a peace deal with Ukraine but distanced himself from Israel’s plan to take full control of Gaza, warning it could cause more bloodshed, even as humanitarian aid just resumed in the region. Trump also continued criticizing North Korea and Iran’s nuclear ambitions, while indirectly warning Russia.
Crypto Universe, Wall Street Edge Higher
A weaker U.S. Dollar and Trump news supported crypto sentiment, while U.S. Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) posted the first daily inflow in five.
Bloomberg came out with the report that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an executive order on Thursday to allow private equity, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and other alternative assets in 401(K)s, opening the doors to roughly $12.5 trillion in retirement accounts.
Elsewhere, Laser Digital, Nomura’s digital asset arm, becomes the first to get a license under Dubai’s Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) Pilot Framework to offer regulated over-the-counter (OTC) virtual asset derivatives.
Further, Japan’s SBI Holdings announced plans to launch the nation’s first dual-asset cryptocurrency ETF, concentrating on Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP.
On the same line, South Korea’s KakaoBank teased joining the stablecoin market, with a potential Won-pegged token launch by late 2025.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) warned of a spike in Bitcoin ATM scams, with losses jumping 31% to $246.7 million in 2024, alongside a 99% rise in complaints.
Talking about Wall Street, the key benchmarks began Thursday on a positive footing, extending the previous day’s cautious optimism, as positive sentiment surrounding the technology shares joined strong earnings from Eli Lilly and Company.
The U.S. equity benchmarks closed higher on Wednesday, led by technology stocks. Apple Inc. surged after its products received a tariff exemption on exports of its products from India to the U.S., following Apple’s announcement of a $100 billion investment in addition to its earlier $500 billion commitment. Similarly, Taiwan secured exemptions on U.S. tariffs for chips and semiconductors, boosting tech shares and lifting Asian markets. This came despite Trump doubling tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50% in response to India’s continued oil imports from Russia.
Early on Thursday, the U.S. pharmacy giant Eli Lilly and Company marked a strong beat to its EPS with $6.31 figures, versus $5.60 expected, while the revenue also rose past $14.70 billion forecasts to $15.56 billion. It should be noted, however, that the stock slumped 13% despite the strong release due to the citing of tariff fears. With this, Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all print around 0.50% intraday gains by the press time.
Also read: Market Digest: Bitcoin Holds Near 115K as the World Splits on Trade and Diplomacy
- Gold renewed a two-week high, before retreating to $3,385, up 0.50% intraday by the press time.
- Bitcoin (BTC) hits fresh weekly top above $116K, up for the second consecutive day.
- Ethereum (ETH) gains over 3.0%, to refresh one-week high near $3,865 before easing to $3,825 at the latest.
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains indecisive around 98.35, after hitting a week’s low earlier in the day.
- Wall Street Benchmarks Edge Higher: Having witnessed modest gains the previous day, Wall Street benchmarks print minor upside during the initial hours, tracking a slightly upbeat performance of stocks in European shares.
- WTI Crude Oil stays defensive at two-month low, making rounds to $64.30 after five-day losing streak.
Looking forward…
Moving on, speeches from Fed officials and the U.S. Consumer Credit Change are left to be released from Thursday’s economic calendar, while Gilead Sciences, Inc. could gain attention from the earnings calendar.
Major focus, however, stays on the geopolitical developments involving Russia, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, India, and Iran. This highlights statements from Trump and the White House as the key risk catalysts.
If the latest cautious optimism fades, which is more likely, the U.S. Dollar could pare the weekly losses and pressure Bitcoin, gold, as well as equities.
