The Nvidia stock (NVDA) price bounced off a three-week low, holding a key technical support, while posting mild gains near $174.00 by the end of Thursday’s New York trading.
A slew of news surrounding the global chip leader and the market’s cautious optimism might have allowed NVDA to rebound from the key support on Thursday.
However, the U.S. chipmaker’s share took a U-turn from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance early in the month, which in turn can join fears about future demand, mainly due to the U.S. trade restrictions and Alphabet’s moves, seem to challenge the bulls of late.
Still, the stock price of the California-based chipmaker faces a second consecutive weekly and monthly fall, despite eyeing a third consecutive yearly gain by press time.
Notably, Nvidia Corporation is the world’s largest enterprise, even if the market capitalization (market cap) eased from November’s all-time high of $4.37 trillion to $3.82 trillion at the latest. That said, NVDA trading volume has been lacklustre since late November, suggesting lower participation during the stock’s latest weakness.
Let’s discuss key catalysts surrounding NVDA price action.
U.S. Reviews Conditions for Nvidia H200 Chip Exports to China
U.S. officials are allegedly reviewing the conditions that could result in the first shipment of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China. The Washington’s move came after U.S. President Donald Trump’s early-month readiness to allow exports of the second-best Nvidia chips to China in exchange for 25% tax.
The Republicans face criticism about Trump’s move, mainly due to concerns about the use of such chips to supercharge China’s military operations. On the same line are growing fears that China might not welcome such an action with major optimism, as its homemade chips are in an evolutionary stage.
Still, such an action could ease the U.S.-China trade tension and might push Beijing towards accepting the readymade chips rather than spending time and money on developing their own.
Hence, Trump’s easing of Nvidia restrictions looks like a positive catalyst for NVDA price, if proved right.
Alphabet’s Collaboration with Meta to Tame Nvidia’s Software Lead
Buzz around Google’s parent company Alphabet collaborating with Meta, Facebook’s parent, to reduce the technological reliance on Nvidia chips seems to have challenged NVDA stock price of late. Details suggest Alphabet aggressively plans to make its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) a clear alternative to Nvidia’s Graphic Processing Units (GPUs), with the help of Meta.
Nvidia Plans to Cut 40% RTX 50 Productions Early 2026
Technology market grapevines are flashing signals that Nvidia plans to cut 40% of its GeForce RTX 50 GPU production early in 2026 amid oversupply concerns. Such moves could lure NVDA bulls amid concerns about stocking the GPUs.
Broad Market Fears
Apart from the company-specific news, pessimism in the U.S. technology sector, led by Broadcom and Oracle, as well as the market’s indecision surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut in 2026, also challenges the Nvidia price.
Technical analysis attracts Nvidia buyers
On a technical side, the Nvidia stock price bounced off the $170.00 support confluence comprising the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its May-October upside and an ascending trendline from early July.
NVDA’s corrective bounce also gained support from a nearly oversold stochastic momentum indicator and steady trading volume.
However, the quote’s reversal from the 50-day SMA could join the broad technology market caution to challenge buyers.
Nvidia Price: Daily Chart Defends NVDA Bulls
The Nvidia price recovers from a convergence of a five-month support line and 50% Fibonacci ratio, close to $170.00, backed by the stochastic line’s U-turn from the oversold limit of 20.00.
With this, NVDA is likely to extend the latest rebound towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $180.50 before attacking the key 50-day SMA hurdle of $185.90.
Beyond that, the late November swing high of $196.00 and the $200.00 psychological magnet will test the bulls before directing them to October’s record top of $212.19.
Meanwhile, a daily closing beneath the aforementioned $170.00 support confluence could drag the Nvidia price to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $160.94, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”.
In a case where the NVDA bears keep the reins past $160.00, the 200-day SMA of $157.21 will act as the final line of defense for the bulls.
