- Ripple price faces its first weekly gain in five, despite the latest inaction.
- XRP exchange supply on Binance hit its lowest in 2025, Futures Open Interest rose, and the options market turned optimistic.
- Chatter surrounding the Fed, IMF, and RLUSD adds strength to the Ripple price amid the holiday mood.
- Top-tier U.S. data will direct XRP moves ahead of the December FOMC, consolidation anticipated.
- Ripple buyers need to remain cautious as long as the price stays below $2.80.
Ripple (XRP) price looks set to snap its four-week downtrend, even as the holiday mood limits the altcoin’s moves around $2.20 early Friday.
A sharp rise in the dovish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expectations triggered the broad risk-on mood and fueled digital assets like Ripple’s XRP of late. Adding to that, bullish on-chain catalysts, technical analysis, and fundamental talks also justify XRP’s strength.
Among them, a sharp depletion in the XRP’s exchange reserves, strong open interest, upbeat options expiry, and market capitalization (market cap) gain major attention from the on-chain advocates. Elsewhere, the quote’s sustained trading beyond the key technical levels joins the XRP positive news from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD to offer additional support to the upside bias.
That said, XRP faces its consecutive second monthly loss, while paring the third yearly gain.
Chatter that Boosts XRP Bulls
From the macro catalysts that fueled cryptocurrency prices this week, a jump in the dovish Fed bets, from 35% last week to nearly 85% per the CME’s FedWatch Tool, gained major attention.
Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) promotion of the XRP Ledger, as one of three major solutions capable of transforming international payments, also underpinned the Ripple prices.
Meanwhile, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin gained institutional rollout approval from the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), after being formally recognized as an Accepted Fiat-Referenced Token.
XRP Upbeat On-Chain Data Suggests Structured Institutional Interest
Alongside the fundamental chatter, on-chain details surrounding Ripple’s XRP also suggest further advances by the altcoin.
Out of the long line, a slump in the XRP’s Exchange Reserves on Binance grabbed the market’s attention. According to CryptoQuant’s X post, conveying research from analyst Darkfost, “Since October, the exchange’s XRP reserves have been steadily decreasing,” adding that they (the reserves) have now dropped to around 2.7 billion XRP, one of the lowest levels ever recorded on the platform. The analyst also mentioned that roughly 300 million XRP have left Binance since October 6.
On the same line, an Arab Chain post on CryptoQuant also cited a notable slump in the circulating supply of XRP on Binance. “The index has fallen to around 0.0271, its lowest level in 2025, reflecting a major change in the dynamics of XRP supply on exchanges compared to earlier periods in the current cycle,” mentioned the post.
Meanwhile, XRP Futures Open Interest (OI) also rose from $3.19 billion on Saturday to $4.08 billion early Friday morning, per the CoinGlass data. That said, Open Interest (OI) is the total number of outstanding contracts in the market, and an increase in the OI signals higher market participation and confirms the latest trend, which is positive for the XRP.
Elsewhere, the options market also suggests an optimistic outlook surrounding the XRP, as details of the monthly options expiry suggest less bearish calls and an upbeat maximum pain price. That said, XRP options worth $15 million are set to expire during this monthly expiry, namely on Friday. Further, the put-call ratio is 0.41, meaning that there are 0.41 put (sell) bets for each 1.0 call (bullish) bet. Further, the maximum pain price, the strike price at which option holders (buyers) lose the most money and options writers (sellers) profit the most, was at $2.30, higher than the current price.
Meanwhile, softer trading volume and a pullback in the market capitalization (market cap) challenge the XRP buyers. According to Santiment, Ripple’s daily trading volume eases for the fourth consecutive day to $2.7 billion, even as the market cap steadies around $132.27 billion by press time.
Technical Analysis
On the technical side, Ripple’s latest consolidation between the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from November 2024 to July 2025, close to $2.08 and $2.48 in that order, joins upbeat conditions of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) to suggest a continuation of the price recovery. However, a seven-week resistance near $2.40 guards the quote’s immediate upside.
Ripple Price: Daily Chart Suggests Consolidation
Given the quote’s sustained trading beyond the 50% Fibonacci ratio and upbeat RSI, the XRP is likely to overcome the immediate $2.40 upside hurdle, but a daily closing beyond that becomes necessary to convince the bulls.
That said, Ripple’s daily closing beyond the $2.40 hurdle will highlight the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $2.46 before shifting the market’s attention to a convergence of the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), close to $2.62-$2.64, as a tough nut to crack for the bulls.
Beyond that, a resistance line from August near $2.80 is the level to knock for the bulls before retaking control.
Alternatively, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $2.08 can challenge short-term XRP bears before the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1.70, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”.
Above all, a horizontal area including multiple levels marked since November 2024, near $1.63-$1.58, looks like a tough nut to crack for the Ripple bears, a break of which could make the altcoin vulnerable to refresh its yearly low by targeting the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio of $1.17 and the $1.00 threshold.
Conclusion
Ripple price reclaims position on the bull’s radar amid upbeat on-chain and technical analysis, as well as the fundamental talks. However, a clear run-up beyond $2.40 and an ultimate rise past the $2.80 hurdle become necessary to avoid a short-term pullback in prices. Apart from the technical levels, the next week’s U.S. activity and inflation data will be crucial to watch as the same will help form the market’s bias surrounding the December FOMC, scheduled to rock the boat during mid-month.
Also read: Ripple USD Gains FSRA Approval for Use Within Abu Dhabi Global Market
