Key Takeaways:
- Over 99% of XRP holders are in profit, increasing chances of a pullback.
- Whale transfers and cooling network growth signal fading momentum.
- Regulatory pressure may delay Ripple’s push into U.S. banking.
XRP trades around $3.50 at the time of reporting, holding recent gains after climbing over 20% in the past week to hit a new all-time high of $3.66. The positive momentum has been fueled by surging futures interest and broader market strength. However, on-chain data is starting to show early signs of profit-taking, with whale transfers increasing, new retail participation cooling, and long-term holders beginning to move their assets. These shifts suggest XRP may be entering a consolidation phase, with potential short-term volatility ahead.
On-Chain Signals Depict Bearish Sentiment?
According to Santiment data, long-term holders who had been accumulating are now selling for the first time in over a month. Over 99% of XRP holders are now in profit, often a sign of potential profit-taking. Long-term holders are moving their coins, suggesting they may be exiting. This combination points to a possible short-term top and increased risk of a pullback.
According to Santiment, XRP experienced a strong spike in new user activity just before July 20, likely driven by its recent price rally. However, this growth quickly dropped off, suggesting that many participants were short-term speculators rather than long-term holders.
At the same time, public sentiment has turned sharply negative after a period of hype, indicating growing doubt about XRP’s momentum. When both user growth and sentiment decline together, it often signals that a rally is losing steam, pointing to a potential short-term slowdown or consolidation phase ahead.
$70M Whale Transfer and Derivatives Surge
Adding to volatility, Whale Alert flagged a $70 million XRP transfer from Upbit to an unknown wallet on July 21. While this hasn’t halted the rally yet, it raises concerns of profit-taking at local highs.
This screenshot shows recent on-chain XRP transactions on July 21, 2025, specifically highlighting large outflows from the unknown wallet to multiple exchanges like Binance, Bitget, and Bybit. Several of these transfers involve significant amounts, such as 13,590 XRP and 9,000 XRP, indicating potential profit-taking or preparation for selling.
Glassnode shows XRP open interest hitting an all-time high on major exchanges, while CME data marks June’s peak as the highest ever for the month. This dual surge across both crypto-native and institutional platforms suggests rising investor confidence and growing institutional interest but also points to increased leverage, which could amplify volatility ahead.
Regulatory Hurdles?
If Ripple is granted a national bank charter, it could significantly boost its regulatory legitimacy, enable faster payment settlements, and allow it to operate across all U.S. states. However, the American Bankers Association and other trade groups have urged the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to delay such approvals, arguing that granting charters to firms like Ripple and Circle raises serious policy and legal concerns. The pushback from traditional banks could stall Ripple’s expansion plans, with the outcome potentially reshaping how crypto firms compete with banks and deliver financial services nationwide.
Conclusion
XRP’s surge shows strong market interest; however, rising sell signals, cooling sentiment, and regulatory hurdles suggest short-term caution as Ripple faces a key turning point.
