Solana Price Analysis: SOL Stalls Three-Day Fall Around $200; Bounce or Breakdown?

Solana (SOL) price prints its first daily gains in four, challenging the previous pullback from a seven-month high, within a short-term rising wedge bearish formation. What Next? Read Here!

Solana TA 01

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  • Solana pauses after declining for three consecutive days, challenging pullback from seven-month high.
  • SOL faces key support at the middle Bollinger Band and Rising Wedge bottom, with short-term bearish momentum signals.
  • Clear break below $195 can put July-August gains at risk.
  • Short-term correction seems to be brewing, but the five-month uptrend could hold.

Solana (SOL) price prints its first daily gains in four, around $202.00 early Monday, challenging the previous pullback from a seven-month-high.

In doing so, the SOL seems to be cheering the official passage of its Alpenglow upgrade proposal, backed by upbeat trading volume. Still, market capitalization remains pressured and joins a U.S. Labor Day holiday to challenge buyers.

Also read: Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, Multicoin Plan $1B Solana Treasury Backed by Cantor Fitzgerald

According to Santiment, the SOL’s daily trading volume snapped a two-day losing streak with a jump to $5.92 billion, while the market cap dribbled around $108.64 billion after retreating from a seven-month high the last week.

Notably, the momentum indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Directional Movement Index (DMI) flash downbeat signals for the short-term but defends the overall bullish momentum outlook.

That said, a short-term rising wedge and the middle Bollinger Band (BB) put a floor under Solana prices, a break of which can challenge the quote’s run-up during July and August. Meanwhile, a five-month bullish channel defends upside bias, but $220.00 is a crucial resistance.

Solana Price: Daily Chart Keeps Bullish Bias Intact

SOLUSD 1D 01092025
Source: TradingView

Solana’s recent bounce from the middle BB gains support from bullish DMI signals to keep buyers hopeful. That said, the DMI’s Upmove line (D+ in blue) hovers around the neutral 25.00 level, currently near 22.00, while the Average Directional Index (ADX in red) prints a notable 28.00 reading, indicating a sturdy support for the uptrend. Further, the Downmove line (D- in orange) remains near 6.00, signaling very weak downside momentum.

Notably, the MACD signals aren’t clear and join the slight inaction due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday to challenge the buyers.

With this, the SOL can extend the latest rebound towards the upper BB resistance surrounding $215.00. However, the quote’s further upside will be challenged by a five-month-old ascending trend channel’s top, close to $220.00.

In a case where Solana posts a daily closing past $220.00, the bulls can aim for the early January swing high near $223.00 and the yearly peak of $295.00.

Alternatively, the $200.00 threshold, the middle BB surrounding $195.00, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of around $184.00, and the lower BB of $175.00 may lure the SOL sellers during the quote’s fresh fall.

Below that, the 200-day SMA of $157.00 and the multi-month bullish channel’s bottom near $155.00 will be the last line of defense for the SOL buyers before handing control to the bears.

Solana Price: Four-Hour Chart Tests Bulls

SOLUSD 4H 01092025
Source: TradingView

On the four-hour chart, a month-old “Rising Wedge” bearish chart formation, currently between $195.00 and $220.00, piques the trader’s interest.

Also important to watch is the 200-bar SMA support of $186.00 and an ascending trend line support from late June, close to $181.00 at the latest.

It is worth observing that the DMI momentum indicator suggests short-term bearish momentum, with the Downmove line (D- in orange) remaining higher, followed by the Upmove line (D+ in blue) and the Average Directional Index (ADX in red) line. However, all three lines are below the 25.00 neutral level, suggesting sluggish momentum.

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator also prints bearish signals and lures the short-term SOL sellers.

Still, a clear break of the $195.00 support becomes necessary to attract bears. Even so, the 200-bar SMA support of $186.00 and the multi-week support line near $181.00 can challenge the downside moves post the rising wedge confirmation’s slump toward the theoretical target surrounding $132.00. Also important to watch are the daily chart levels.

On the flip side, the SOL’s clear break of $220.00 will defy the bearish chart formation, allowing buyers to challenge the higher levels discussed on the daily chart.

Conclusion

Solana’s recent rebound may face headwinds during the short-term, suggesting odds of a pullback in prices. However, the broad recovery trend since April is likely to hold unless the quote drops beneath the $155.00 key support level.

Also read: Cryptocurrency Weekly Price Prediction: BTC, ETH & XRP Lose Ground as Fed Worries Join Month-End Positioning

Disclaimer

All content provided on Times Crypto is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Trading and investing involve risk and may result in financial loss. We strongly recommend consulting a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A research analyst with 10+years of experience in tracking Forex, Equities, Commodities and Cryptocurrencies. Worked with Edelweiss, FxStreet, etc.