- Tron falls to one-week low, extending reversal from six-month high.
- Two-month bullish channel and key SMAs pose challenge to TRX sellers.
- RSI, MACD suggest downside break of $0.2750, but $0.2500 remains tough nut to crack for TRX/USD bears.
Tron (TRX/USD) price drops to the lowest level in a week while extending the previous day’s U-turn from a six-month high to $0.2750 during Thursday’s European session.
In doing so, the TRX/USD pair challenges a two-month-old bullish trend channel formation while confirming bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator, as well as trend-favoring conditions from the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI).
However, a convergence of the key Simple Moving Averages challenges the TRX bears from taking control, even if they manage to break the two-month bullish trend.
TRX/USD: Daily chart points to limited downside room
Source: Tradingview
Tron bears appear determined to challenge the two-month-old bullish trend channel, despite the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the November–December 2024 rally—also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”—reinforcing the key $0.2750 support.
Supporting the bearish bias are the MACD indicator’s first red signal in a week and the 14-day RSI hovering near the neutral 50.00 level, both suggesting continued downside in TRX prices.
However, a major test for TRX/USD sellers lies at the convergence of the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages around $0.2500.
A clear break below this zone could expose the pair to further declines toward previous lows seen in April, March, and February—around $0.2200, $0.2100, and the psychological $0.2000 mark, respectively. Below that, the $0.1860 level may offer temporary support to the TRX prices before opening the door to the November 2024 low near $0.1600.
On the other hand, if TRX/USD rebounds, immediate resistance lies near the monthly high around $0.2955 and the psychological $0.3000 level.
A sustained move beyond these hurdles could lead the TRX price toward the $0.3060 resistance area, which aligns with both the upper boundary of the bullish channel and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Additionally, continued strength past $0.3060 may pave the way for a Tron rally toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the highs from early December 2024, near the $0.3400 mark.
TRX/USD: Four-Hour chart lures sellers
Source: Tradingview
On the four-hour chart, TRX/USD sellers are pressuring both the lower boundary of a two-month-old bullish trend channel and the 200-bar SMA. Limiting further downside, however, are the nearly oversold conditions of the 14-bar RSI, which hovers around 34.00.
Despite this, a confirmed break below the 50-bar SMA and bearish signals from the MACD indicator keep the bears optimistic about a move beneath the $0.2750 support and the 200-bar SMA, which is currently near $0.2735.
If these levels give way, the mid-April highs around $0.2600 may offer initial support before the TRX/USD pair heads toward deeper levels discussed on the daily chart.
On the flip side, any attempt at a TRX recovery will likely remain capped below the 50-bar Simple Moving Average at $0.2820. Beyond that, TRX/USD resistance awaits at an ascending trendline from May 12 near $0.2965, followed by the top of the bullish channel around $0.3060. These must be cleared before bulls can aim for the key resistance levels outlined on the daily timeframe.
In summary, Tron prices may face a short-term pullback, but key moving averages could delay or limit bearish control.
