XRP News Summary
- Ripple retreats after bouncing off key support, as FOMC positioning begins.
- Optimism surrounding the Rex-Osprey XRP ETF and Fed rate cuts keeps buyers hopeful.
- 50-day EMA, two-month previous resistance line together highlights $2.95 as the key support.
- Fed’s dovish bias, ETF approval might fuel XRP towards $5.00 mark.
Ripple (XRP) price drops back to $3.01, down 0.90% intraday on Wednesday, as market players prepare for today’s all-important Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy announcements. Also weighing on the XRP could be the chatter surrounding the REX-Osprey XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
In doing so, the Altcoin fades the early-week recovery from the key $2.95 support confluence, comprising a previous resistance line from late July and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
A second consecutive fall in the daily trading volume and a pullback in the market capitalization (market cap) also suggest a loss of support for XRP’s recent retreat. According to Santiment, Ripple’s daily trading volume eases for the second consecutive day to $4.55 billion, whereas its market cap eases to $180.17 billion.
With this, the XRP’s recovery looks promising, despite the latest pullback, and can align with the broader bullish trend.
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Fed and XRP
While today’s 0.25% rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is almost given, the traders will pay attention to details confirming future rate cuts to favor Ripple buyers.
The money markets almost fully price a 25 basis points (bps) cut and two more in 2025, with the Fed’s “dot-plot” likely showing increased easing in 2026, which in turn can allow the XRP bulls to keep the reins.
Even if the Fed’s 0.25% rate reduction and dovish signals appear to be given, stubborn inflation and soft jobs data may allow Fed Chair Jerome Powell to emphasize data-dependence, limiting the rate cut’s impact.
If the Fed delivers a softer rate cut of say 0.10%, or signals fewer reductions for the future, or altogether holds the rates steady, the U.S. Dollar could rally, which in turn can pressure the XRP.
Alternatively, a smooth 25bps cut aligned with expectations may boost risk assets, including Ripple. Notably, a 0.50% rate cut surprise could drown the U.S. Dollar, allowing major cryptocurrencies and XRP to approach the latest peaks with a stellar rally.
REX-Osprey XRP ETF Approaches
The first XRP ETF launch in the U.S. will take place on September 18, with the REX-Osprey partnership.
Even if the ETF doesn’t solely concentrate on the spot Ripple price, its 80% exposure, per Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan, could propel the fund inflow toward the XRP and fuel the prices, allowing bulls to keep reins.
Notably, the REX-Osprey Solana ETF (SSK) reported net inflows of $230 million since its launch on July 2, 2025, which in turn fueled the Solana (SOL) prices by around 70% between early July and mid-September.
If such moves are witnessed in the REX-Osprey XRP ETF, the Ripple prices could well cross the $4.67 hurdle and aim for the $5.00 threshold.
Technical Analysis
On the technical front, Ripple’s sustained trading beyond the key EMAs and early-month bullish breakout joins upbeat Stochastic to keep buyers hopeful. Read details below.
Ripple Price: Daily Chart Defends Bullish Bias
Despite the latest retreat, Ripple remains well beyond the convergence of the 50-day EMA and a two-month resistance-turned-support, close to $2.95.
The bullish bias also takes clues from the stochastic conditions, well beyond the 50.0 neutral level but beneath the 80.00 overbought limit.
With this, the XRP is likely to bounce off the $2.95 support and can recall the buyers; if not, then the 100-day EMA support of $2.82 and the previous resistance line from early March, close to $2.65, could challenge the bears.
Notably, the 200-day EMA level of $2.57 acts as the last line of defense for the Ripple buyers, a break of which could direct prices toward an ascending support line from April, close to $2.24 at the latest.
Alternatively, the monthly high of $3.19 could lure short-term XRP bulls before highlighting the key resistance area from mid-January, between $3.33 and $3.40.
That said, the XRP’s break of $3.40 will potentially open the door to challenge the record high near $3.67 and target the psychological $4.00 level.
Ripple Price: Four-Hour Chart Also Favors Recovery
Ripple’s four-hour chart also defends the bullish bias as the quote stays beyond a two-week support line, close to $3.00, as well as the 200-bar EMA support of $2.97, amid bullish Stochastic conditions.
That said, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the XRP’s August-September fall, close to $2.86, acts as an additional downside filter, apart from what’s already discussed on the daily chart.
Meanwhile, a five-week-old descending trendline surrounding $3.17 appears to be a short-term important hurdle to watch for Ripple buyers, a break of which will highlight the higher levels discussed on the daily chart.
Conclusion
Ripple’s short-term recovery bias remains intact despite today’s retreat, driven by hopes of Fed rate cuts and optimism surrounding the XRP ETF. However, the XRP bulls need validation from multiple resistances and witness upbeat inflows to keep control. Failing to do so can repeat the boring episode of formal completion of the Ripple vs. the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Still, the overall bullish outlook holds unless the quote breaks the 200-day EMA.
Also read: Cryptocurrency Weekly Price Prediction: BTC, ETH, XRP Rally as Markets Bet Big on FOMC Rate Cuts
