On major exchanges, Zcash (ZEC) is trading for about $230 at the time of writing. In the last 24 hours, the token lost 7% of its value, and the whole cryptocurrency market also got weaker. Zcash went up only 5.8 percent in the past week, but it is still down more than 40 percent from last month. This performance stands out because Bitcoin and Ethereum lost even more value during the same time period. This shows that the company is doing better than others, even though it is still weak.
On-chain Metrics Show Whales Reducing Exposure
The metrics on the chain don’t look satisfactory. Over the past week, big holders, also known as whales, cut their ZEC positions by about 38%. The last 24 hours have been difficult for the digital asset with elevated selling. The spot netflow metric indicates a 30-day outflow of $111.64 million. In addition to this, the exchange inflows also shot up, and net outflows showed up yesterday. The combination suggests that the asset is gradually carried from private or shielded wallets to centralized platforms, which is a typical indication that these major market participants will shift towards the distribution phase.
The way the supply is set up makes things more complicated. About 70% of the circulating supply is now controlled by the top 100 addresses. This level of concentration is very high for a mature asset, which makes the price more likely to drop when people sell it together. Smart-money flow indicators are still flat, and there is no sign that sophisticated investors are building up their positions in a meaningful way. There is no buying support at these levels, which means that the recent rise from the lows of early February is based on a weak foundation.
Bearish Flag and Pole Pattern on the Daily Chart
The technical structure backs up the bearish view. There is a clear flag-and-pole pattern on the daily chart. The pole formed when the price dropped sharply from the highs close to $550 in the last week of 2025 to the lows near $185 in February. There was a consolidation that lasted for several weeks, which made the flag.
Based on the current price close to $230, this target suggests a possible drop of about 66%, which would bring ZEC down to around $78. On the OKX ZEC/USDT daily timeframe, the price has already tested the lower flag boundary several times without a strong recovery. If the price needs a bullish wave, reclaiming the zone near $304.5 becomes crucial. The flip needs to be carried out by smart money with substantial volume.
What Momentum Indicators Show
Momentum readings also support the current market structure. There has been a bearish divergence between the price and the Relative Strength Index for the last four months. Zcash’s prices climbed higher more often than the RSI’s between October 2025 and February 2026. This difference demonstrates that the bulls have started to lose their strength.
Even though the price is close to recent local highs, the RSI is still going down. The price action and the momentum are now experiencing a gap, which is a standard sign of market exhaustion. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator tells a story that is very similar. The MACD line is below its signal line on the same daily chart, and the histogram is still firmly in the negative. The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) oscillator reads –49.08, which means that there has been a lot of selling pressure in the recent trading range.
Exchange Flows and the Mood of the Market as a Whole
Data on exchange flows adds depth. The net outflow yesterday made it look like people wanted to buy at first. But the rise in inflows that followed fits perfectly with the whale distribution that was observed. People in the market seem to be moving away from Zcash, even though the token is still doing well compared to other major ones.
This situation gives the wrong impression: short-term price stability hides the fact that coins are moving from strong hands to possibly weaker ones. In the past, other altcoins have shown that these kinds of distribution phases often happen before prices drop quickly when retail interest fades.
Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch
Resistance is in the $250–$280 range, which is the upper limit of the current flag and the most recent swing highs. A daily close above $280 on increasing volume would end the bearish flag and make it possible to test $350–$400 again.
Support is just below the current trading levels. The $220–$215 zone is the lower flag boundary and the low point of the February swing. A clean breakdown below $215 with more volume would confirm the measured-move target and probably speed up selling toward the $150–$120 area before any real stabilization happens.
Things to think about when trading and managing risk
On-chain distribution, concentrated supply, and textbook bearish technical structures all coming together mean individuals should be careful. The market participants should be aware of their position sizing. Stop-loss orders set just above the flag resistance or just below the immediate support can help keep risk to a minimum.
The privacy story behind Zcash is still true for people who hold it for a long time. Regulatory clarity around privacy coins, the use of shielded transactions, and the possibility of privacy coins being used in decentralized finance could still be good things for the price. But these basic factors are not likely to outweigh the short-term technical and on-chain pressure.
There is a high chance that Zcash will go down right now. The 38% drop in large-holder balances, the 70% concentration of supply in the top 100 addresses, and the clear bearish flag pattern all point to a possible 66% drop from where we are now. There are no signs of a reversal in the momentum indicators, and the exchange flows show that distribution is still going on.
