- Bitcoin price remains under pressure following the first weekly loss in eight.
- First BTC Spot ETF outflow in seven, shift in risk sentiment and technical analysis challenge buyers.
- Risk catalysts and on-chain metrics like whale accumulation, MVRV indicator and funding rates appear interesting to watch.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell to a new intraday low near $105,000 during Tuesday’s European session, breaking a three-day winning streak and staying under pressure after its first weekly loss in eight weeks.
The decline comes amid shifting market sentiment, driven by US trade and political developments, the first BTC ETF outflow in seven weeks, and weakening technical indicators.
However, key on-chain metrics aren’t yet showing a clear bearish trend, so traders should closely monitor these factors as BTC approaches the critical $100K psychological level.
A Shift in Sentiment
A US Federal Court’s challenge to Trump’s tariffs—and the White House’s appeal—shook markets, raising concerns over his tax policies and their impact on US fiscal health, even as the bill nears approval.
Mixed earnings reports added to the cautious mood. At the same time, Washington accused China of breaking trade pact terms, criticized Russia over Ukraine, and faced rising tensions in US-Iran ceasefire talks—all adding to market uncertainty. Still, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose for the week, equities stayed near record highs, but Bitcoin declined.
Source: TradingView
This led to a divergence between BTC/USD and the S&P 500 last week—Bitcoin dropped nearly 3.0%, while the S&P 500 gained about 2.0%.
While this suggests a shift in sentiment toward Bitcoin, the trend needs to continue to confirm a bearish outlook and a lasting contrast with equities.
ETF Outflows:
Along with shifting market sentiment, a surprise drop in spot BTC ETF flows added to BTC/USD’s decline and kept pressure on prices.
On May 30, BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of $616.22 million—the biggest since late February and the first weekly outflow in eight weeks. According to the latest SoSoValue data, total BTC spot ETF net outflows reached $157.40 million last week, with an additional $267.52 million outflow on Monday.
Source: SoSoValue.com
On-Chain Metrics
While shifting sentiment and ETF outflows were key drivers of BTC/USD’s recent weekly drop, several on-chain metrics still support a bullish outlook. Notably, declining supply, an increase in whale wallets, and the movement of long-dormant coins are drawing investor attention.
Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges
A CoinGlass chart shows a sharp drop in Bitcoin exchange balances, even as prices rise—signaling reduced supply and strong investor holding, which points to a bullish bias for BTC/USD. Latest data shows total exchange balances at 2.16 million coins, well below late 2024 levels. Over the last 24 hours, balances fell by 24,982.50 BTC; the 7-day and 30-day changes were -8,335.72 and -70,836.56 BTC, respectively, according to CoinGlass.
Source: CoinGlass.com
Whale accumulation
Despite the surprise drop in spot BTC ETFs and BTC/USD breaking its seven-week uptrend, large Bitcoin holders (wallets with 10–10K BTC) have been accumulating.
According to Santiment, these wallets added around 36,000 BTC over the three days leading up to May 30, reaching an all-time high of 13.53 million BTC—68.09% of total supply.
Source: Santiment.com
Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA)
Santiment’s Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) tracks the average age of invested dollars. A falling MDIA—like we’re seeing now—signals that older coins are moving more quickly.
However, the current decline, which began in late April, isn’t as sharp as in 2021. So, Bitcoin bulls should stay cautious before drawing strong conclusions.
Source: Santiment.com
MVRV and Funding Rates
MVRV (Market Value vs. Realized Value) Ratio is an on-chain metric that helps identify if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued during market cycles, indicating potential price tops and bottoms for BTC/USD. The latest chart from the CoinGlass shows the MVRV Ratio at 2.26, above 1.00, indicating BTC/USD is slightly overvalued. However, it’s not as high as in November 2024, suggesting underlying price strength.
Source: CoinGlass.com
An increase in the Open Interest (OI) weighted funding rate shows traders are willing to pay more to maintain long positions. CoinGlass data reports the latest OI-weighted funding rate at 0.0062%. Throughout May, this rate stayed positive, supporting BTC/USD’s bullish outlook.
Source: CoinGlass.com
Technical Analysis
Despite the recent three-day recovery, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) continues to defend the late-May reversal from an upward-sloping resistance line that began in December 2024.
It also remains below both a two-month-old previous support trend line and the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This downside break aligns with a steady 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near the neutral 50.0 level, and bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator—together suggesting a short-term correction in BTC price
BTC/USD: Daily chart signals short-term correction
Source: Tradingview
With its recent failure to cross the 21-day SMA, the BTC/USD pair now looks poised to challenge a key horizontal support zone between $101,000 and $99,000, formed by multiple levels dating back to early February and including the 50-day SMA.
Before reaching that area, February’s high near $102,700 could temporarily ease selling pressure.
It should be noted that the BTC’s clear downside past $99,000 could expose Bitcoin to a deeper fall toward the monthly low near $93,300.
Alternatively, Bitcoin’s immediate upside is capped by the 21-day SMA at $106,500. Beyond that, a key resistance zone near $112,400—where an April support-turned-resistance line meets a long-term ascending resistance—will be crucial. Breaking this level could spark a bullish move toward the $120K psychological target.
Conclusion
In conclusion, ongoing trade and political tensions may continue to weigh on BTC/USD. However, with ETF outflows and on-chain signals playing a key role, traders should watch these indicators closely for clearer direction. If bearish sentiment holds and buying interest remains weak, Bitcoin appears likely to retest levels below the $100K mark
