- Crypto markets grabbed headlines as Bitcoin hit record top, defying global tariff concerns.
- Whales, ETFs, and breakouts lit up crypto majors — BTC hit fresh highs, ETH +15%, XRP +22%, with gold and equities also rising despite global tensions.
- U.S. President Trump slapped heavy tariffs on Canada, Japan and European Union, tensions from Ukraine and Middle East also challenged sentiment.
- Major crypto bills — CLARITY, GENIUS, and Anti-CBDC — dominate U.S. “Crypto Week” talks, potentially rewriting digital asset regulation and fuel prices.
Last week was a whirlwind for financial markets as opposing forces collided ahead of the crucial U.S. “Crypto Week.” Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surged past a fresh all-time high above $118,000, closing the week with an 8% gain. Ethereum (ETH/USD) followed strongly, jumping 15% to reach its highest level since early February, breaking key resistance near $2,965. Ripple (XRP/USD) also rallied impressively, gaining 22% to hit its highest price since March, ending the week near $2.80.
At the same time, President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by announcing steep tariffs—25% on Japan, 35% on Canada, and 30% on the European Union and Mexico—if trade deals are not finalized by August 1. These announcements unsettled markets and pushed investors toward protective moves. Heightening risk aversion were renewed geopolitical tensions: Israel struck Yemen’s Houthi militants following an alleged attack on a ship in the Red Sea, while the U.S. intensified pressure on allies to supply weapons to Ukraine amid heavy Russian drone attacks.
Despite Trump’s repeated calls for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes revealed no change in policymakers’ bias. Combined with softer U.S. jobless claims and persistent inflation concerns—driven by near-record stock markets, trade disputes, immigration policies, and a looming budget bill—this reduced the odds of a rate cut, especially with growing anxiety ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This outlook helped the U.S. Dollar Index snap a two-week downtrend.
Yet, a stronger dollar didn’t halt risk assets’ advance. Bitcoin reached new highs, gold extended gains for the second consecutive week, and the S&P 500 hit fresh records before closing with mild losses.
In crypto markets, institutional demand is fueling gains, with Ethereum showing more upside potential than Bitcoin. Ripple’s rally remains uncertain as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision on its case is still pending—but whale buying continues to pour in.
Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. “Crypto Week” promises to be pivotal, with major legislation such as the CLARITY Act, Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and GENIUS Act scheduled for discussion on Capitol Hill—developments that could reignite optimism in the digital asset space.
Beyond “Crypto Week,” key economic data including U.S. CPI and Retail Sales, UK CPI and Jobs reports, China’s trade and GDP figures, and employment and inflation data from Australia, Canada, and Japan will fill the calendar. Additionally, a recent update from the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency suggested that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell might be considering resignation, adding another layer of uncertainty to the markets.
Bitcoin Bulls Brace for $135K during “Crypto Week”
Despite persistent concerns about Bitcoin being overvalued, the crypto giant rallied in step with the S&P 500’s record highs and gold’s two-week climb—buoyed by strong institutional demand. Large holders, or whales, remain firmly bullish, even as the ongoing tug-of-war between retail traders and institutional players continues to influence market sentiment. Notably, Bitcoin’s breakout above the critical $113K resistance has added fresh momentum, with bulls now eyeing the next key target: a 16-month ascending trendline resistance that aligns with growing market chatter about a potential move toward $135K in the BTC/USD pair.
Let’s start with the correlation chart from TradingView, which shows a clear, sustained linear relationship between Bitcoin (BTC/USD), the S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Gold (XAU/USD). This correlation remains intact even as Bitcoin faces rising economic uncertainty from U.S. tariff threats and intense focus on key crypto legislation being debated on Capitol Hill. The trend underscores growing market confidence in cryptocurrencies as the next alternative safe haven.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki recently called Bitcoin the “easy path to becoming a millionaire,” forecasting a $1 million price in the long term, with a $250,000 target by year-end. Similarly, Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, sees Bitcoin potentially surging toward $135,000 in the near term.
On-Chain, ETF Signals
Looking at on-chain data, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for BTC/USD suggests the asset is nearing “overbought” territory from a long-term investor perspective. However, the MVRV Z-Score—often used to gauge broader market sentiment—still offers a glimmer of hope for the bulls.
According to the latest data from Santiment, short-term Bitcoin traders are up 9.0%, while long-term holders have seen gains of 26%. This gap suggests limited near-term risk for new short-term entries, though long-term investors are entering a market where significant profits have already been realized. Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score stands at 2.87—firmly in bullish territory, with no signs of overheating or extreme overvaluation. Overall, sentiment around BTC/USD remains positive, but bulls are advised to proceed with caution.
Elsewhere, the latest chart from Santiment highlights a clear divide between retail traders and whales in Bitcoin’s supply distribution by wallet size. However, the pace of this divergence has been slowing recently, suggesting a potential shift in accumulation behavior.
Moving on, data from Santiment reveals that Bitcoin whales are steadily accumulating. According to its latest Weekly Insight report, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added over 95,000 BTC in the past six weeks. As a result, approximately 10.2% of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply is now held by institutions, governments, and corporations, suggesting a sturdy investment that’s not likely to exit the flows quickly and favor the bulls.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing signs of bullish bias among institutional players ahead of “Crypto Week,” as inflows continue to pour in steadily.
The latest data from SoSovalue shows a jump in institutional demand for Bitcoin, as U.S. spot BTC ETF inflows hit a seven-week high. For the week ending July 11, total inflows reached $2.72 billion, portraying a fourth consecutive monthly inflow totalling around $3.39 billion for July.
BTC/USD Bulls Brace for Another Record Top On Daily Chart
Despite recent inaction, Bitcoin is holding firmly above the July 10 breakout level near $114,000—a key zone that flipped from a seven-month-old resistance into support. This stability, alongside bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, keeps BTC/USD buyers optimistic.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains overbought at 74.00, suggesting a potential short-term pullback before the next move higher.
That said, supports are seen at $114K, followed by prior tops near $112,000 (May), $109,350 (January), and the previous yearly high at $108,364—levels likely to cap any strong bearish attempts.
Meanwhile, a break above the recent high around $118,840 would expose upside targets at the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci Extension (FE) levels of the April–June rally—near $121,450 and $127,800, respectively—before bulls aim for the ascending trendline resistance from March 2024, currently around $135,000.
Ethereum Looks More Promising for Bulls
Whether it’s steady ETF inflows, bullish on-chain signals hinting at undervaluation, or the gradual recovery of the ETH/BTC pair, not to forget supply-crunch, Ethereum (ETH/USD) buyers appear to have more reasons for optimism than their Bitcoin counterparts.
Starting with the ETH/BTC chart, buyers are slowly regaining ground, even as the pair recently retreated from the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) after their first confrontation with the key SMA since July 2024. This move signals that Ethereum isn’t just following the broader market rally but is actively outperforming Bitcoin. Such strength often indicates a healthy altcoin market, with capital rotating into projects backed by strong fundamentals.
ETH Bulls Gain Ground as Staking Cuts Supply, Issuance Stays Low
Earlier in the last week, the Blockchain News conveyed that shows ETH balances on exchanges continue to decline, while over 35 million ETH—nearly 28% of the total circulating supply—is now locked in proof-of-stake contracts. This sharp reduction in liquid supply tightens demand-supply dynamics, giving a strong boost to Ethereum prices.
On the same line were the news from Farside stating that over the last 30 days, net new ETH issuance was just 73,202 ETH, while ETH ETFs alone saw 725,000 ETH in net inflows. That’s 10x more demand than supply.
On-chain Details Lure ETH Buyers
A comparison of the MVRV metric between Ethereum and Bitcoin reveals a more favorable setup for ETH. Short-term Ethereum traders are hovering at 14.20%, while long-term holders remain underwater on average despite 13.19% increase. This suggests Ethereum has considerably more upside potential before entering “overheated” or overvalued territory. Supporting this view, the MVRV Z-Score for ETH sits near 0.274, indicating upbeat valuation amid growing market optimism.
ETH ETF Optimism Remain Intact
U.S. spot ETH ETFs reported the nine-week inflow streak to keep the Ethereum buyers hopeful. Also important to note that the weekly ETF inflows jumped to a record high of $907.99 million.
Additional Favors For ETH/USD Buyers
Apart from the supply-crunch, MVRV details, ETH/BTC Ratio and ETF inflows, a slew of other catalysts also suggest more upside potential of the Ethereum than Bitcoin.
Among them, the fact that the largest Ethereum wallets (holding 10,000+ ETH), also called whales, have increased their holdings to a staggering 75.74% of the total supply, the highest since May 2017, gains major attention.
Further, growing optimism within the Ethereum developer community is adding momentum to ETH/USD prices. That said, Robinhood recently announced it is building its own Layer-2 (L2) scaling solution on Ethereum network whereas Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) in France gained major accolades with the Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin introducing a new digital identity system based on zero-knowledge proofs.
ETH/USD: Daily Chart Keeps Bulls Hopeful
ETH/USD is showing signs of slowing momentum as the RSI cools near overbought territory. Still, the bulls remain in control as long as Ethereum stays above the 200-day SMA and holds its recent breakout above the February trendline. The MACD also signals continued upside potential.
A key resistance lies at $3,072, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2024 to April 2025 drop. A clean break above this level could pave the way for a rally toward $3,437 and $3,525—the highs from late January—before targeting the 2025 peak near $3,743.
On the flip side, a drop below $2,910 may encourage some profit-booking, pulling ETH toward the $2,750 area (50% Fibonacci level), and possibly further down to the 200-day SMA around $2,482. However, strong demand is expected near the $2,150–$2,115 support zone, which has acted as a solid floor since early February.
Ripple Bulls Unfazed by SEC Anxiety, Momentum Persists
Although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has remained silent on whether it will withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case—even after the closed-door meeting on July 10—XRP continues to draw strong bullish interest. Growing optimism around a potential XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025 and aggressive whale accumulation helped drive a solid 22% weekly gain for the XRP/USD pair.
Adding to the bullish momentum is notable whale activity. The number of wallets holding at least one million XRP surged to a record 2,747 last week—currently at 2,741—together controlling roughly $47.31 billion in XRP. This “smart money” buildup signals strong confidence among large investors and supports the growing positive sentiment around Ripple.
XRP 1M+ Coin Balance By Number & Total Balance Held
Additionally, from a technical standpoint, XRP has broken decisively above a 4.5-month resistance zone, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and a key horizontal barrier that had capped gains since early March. This breakout, reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover, keeps buyers optimistic, though overbought conditions in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may slow near-term upside.
XRP/USD: Daily Chart Boosts Bullish Bias
XRP/USD has staged a technically significant breakout, clearing key resistance levels around $2.66 and $2.36. The $2.36 zone was particularly critical, aligning with the 200-day SMA and a descending trendline from mid-January. This breakout is backed by a bullish crossover in the MACD, though an overbought RSI may limit immediate upside.
With momentum on its side, XRP looks set to retest the March high near $3.03, and potentially challenge the yearly peak at $3.40 from January.
However, if bulls lose steam, a dip back below $2.66 could open the door for a retest of $2.36. Further downside may extend toward $2.23 (late June high), the psychological $2.00 mark, and deeper support zones at $1.91 and $1.77—areas that previously acted as solid bases in Q1.
In summary, XRP/USD remains technically strong, but a new catalyst—possibly regulatory clarity—may be needed to fuel and sustain a move beyond $2.66.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin eyes $135K, Ethereum tightens its grip on bullish momentum, and Ripple rides whale optimism, the stage is set for a high-stakes “Crypto Week.” The upcoming discussions on Capitol Hill—centered around the CLARITY Act, GENIUS Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act—could reshape the regulatory landscape and unlock the next wave of institutional inflows. With strong fundamentals, steady ETF demand, and rising investor confidence, the crypto market isn’t just surviving uncertainty—it’s thriving on it.
