- Crypto market valuation hits $4 trillion as ‘GENIUS’ bill becomes law, Trump backs crypto access to $9 trillion retirement market.
- Bitcoin hit fresh ATH but closed the week down 1%, while Ethereum and Ripple surged +20% weekly to fuel altcoin season hype.
- Price and social trends challenge altcoin season optimism, but whales, MVRV, and funding rates keep buyers crypto hopeful.
- Pre-Fed blackout, rising tariff fears, and post-‘crypto week’ consolidation may trim gains even as regulation jitters keep markets shaky.
Amid mostly bullish market volatility, the successful enactment of the pioneering cryptocurrency regulation during ‘Crypto Week’—the GENIUS Bill—boosted confidence in institutional capital, driving the crypto market valuation to a record $4 trillion. Adding to the optimism, U.S. President Donald Trump advocated for opening crypto access to the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) hit a record high of $123K but ended the week down 1% at around $117,900. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH/USD) gained the spotlight, rising over 25% to reach a yearly high near $3,752 by press time. Ripple (XRP/USD) also caught attention, surging 23% over the week and hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of $3.67 before pulling back to $3.48.
The ‘Crypto Week’ Moves
The GENIUS Act, which sets regulations for stablecoins, gained presidential approval on Friday and became the first ever comprehensive federal law to regulate U.S. dollar–backed stablecoins. It outlines clear rules for who can issue stablecoins, how they must be backed, and what compliance standards they must meet. While the GENIUS Act become law, the CLARITY Act—which aims to define the broader structure of crypto markets—moved to the Senate for further debate. The Anti-CBDC Act, which proposes banning central bank digital currencies, faces more political division. It is tied to the critical National Defense Authorization Act as a Republican compromise, meaning it may take longer before it becomes law.
In addition to the ‘Crypto Week’ progress, a report from the Financial Times (FT) boosted crypto optimism by revealing that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to open the $9.0 trillion retirement market to crypto investments. According to sources briefed on the plan, per the FT, the President is expected to sign an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to include alternative investments beyond traditional stocks and bonds.
Elsewhere, concerns mounted over Trump’s recent negative U-turn on European Union (EU) tariffs, mostly upbeat U.S. inflation data favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance, and a U.S. judge’s ruling raising doubts about Trump’s authority to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which bolstered the U.S. Dollar.
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest economic assessment highlighted ongoing trade tensions and persistent downside risks, maintaining high uncertainty. Furthermore, geopolitical strains—including struggles to maintain ceasefire in the Middle East, Trump’s weapons supply to Ukraine, and rising anti-Russia sentiment—also weighed on the riskier assets.
Despite this, gold, the U.S. Dollar, and—surprisingly—equities held firm, while most cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin, posted strong rallies.
Moving on, the crypto market may enter a consolidation phase in the coming week, as traders reassess the recent ‘Crypto Week’ optimism and the potential impact of the newly passed GENIUS Bill on the industry. Adding to the pressure on crypto buyers are growing anxieties ahead of the late-July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, along with risk-off sentiment driven by Donald Trump’s tariff threats and political rhetoric.
Altcoin Season Buzz…
A sharp rally in Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD) triggered strong gains across other altcoins, fueling speculation that altcoin season may be underway and pointing to more upside for non-Bitcoin assets. However, price and social trend data show mixed signals, putting the buzz to the test.
Bitcoin (BTC) Pullback Appears Justified
According to the latest data from Santiment, Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) recent price pullback aligns with a decline in Social Volume and Social Dominance—indicating reduced social media chatter around BTC buying. This drop in sentiment helps validate the price correction and suggests that recent market moves may be more rational than reactive.
Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP) Show Social Divergence, Testing Altcoin Season Hopes
While price and social trend data support Bitcoin’s pullback, the sharp gains in Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) contrast with declining social volume and dominance—creating a social divergence that challenges the altcoin season narrative.
Given the divergence between social chatter and the recent strong price rallies in Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), it appears the initial excitement may be fading—even as prices attempt a final push higher. This pattern points to a likely short-term correction, although the market may still retain enough momentum for another upward move.
Let’s talk about the crypto majors in detail!
Bitcoin Bulls Hold Control Despite Recent Pullback
Persistent concerns about Bitcoin being overvalued continue to challenge the crypto giant, even as ‘Crypto Week’ optimism coincides with the S&P 500 reaching record highs. The recent pullback in gold—its first weekly loss in three—also reignites questions about the once-clear correlation between Bitcoin and gold. Meanwhile, large holders, or whales, remain firmly bullish, even as the ongoing tug-of-war between retail traders and institutional players shapes market sentiment.
Notably, Bitcoin’s sustained hold above the critical $114,000 resistance, now turned support, has bulls targeting the next key level: a 16-month ascending trendline resistance that aligns with growing chatter of a potential move toward $135,000 for BTC/USD.
Starting with the correlation chart from TradingView, there’s a clear, sustained linear relationship between Bitcoin (BTC/USD), the S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Gold (XAU/USD), despite the recent divergence of the SPX. This correlation holds even as Bitcoin navigates rising economic uncertainty from U.S. tariff threats and heightened scrutiny of key crypto legislation on Capitol Hill. The trend highlights growing market confidence in cryptocurrencies as a new alternative safe haven.
On-Chain, ETF Signals
On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio remains in “overbought” territory from a long-term investor’s view, despite the recent pullback boosting short-term trader optimism. Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score—an indicator of broader market sentiment—offers bulls a glimmer of hope.
According to the latest data from Santiment, short-term Bitcoin traders are up 3.99%, while long-term holders have seen gains of 23.50%. This gap suggests limited near-term risk for new short-term entries, though long-term investors are entering a market where significant profits have already been realized. Meanwhile, the MVRV Z-Score stands at 2.827—firmly in bullish territory, with no signs of overheating or extreme overvaluation. Overall, sentiment around BTC/USD remains positive, but bulls are advised to proceed with caution.
Elsewhere, recent data from Santiment highlights a distinct split in Bitcoin’s supply distribution between large holders (whales) and retail investors based on wallet size. At the same time, Glassnode shows that the 7-day moving average of BTC moving from whale wallets to exchanges is climbing toward 12,000 BTC, marking one of the busiest weekly transfer volumes in 2025. This spike closely resembles the activity seen in early November 2024, a time that preceded a significant crypto rally.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing signs of bullish bias among institutional players even as the “Crypto Week” pullback in inflows could be spotted on the following weekly chart.
Recent figures from SoSovalue indicate a modest dip in institutional demand for Bitcoin, with U.S. spot BTC ETF inflows cooling off after hitting a seven-week peak, though still marking a sixth straight week of positive inflows. For the week ending July 18, total inflows reached $2.39 billion, contributing to a fourth consecutive monthly inflow that totals approximately $5.78 billion for July.
BTC/USD: Daily Chart Flags Short-Term Dip Within Upward Trend
Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin remains firmly above the July 10 breakout level near $114,000—a critical zone that flipped from seven-month resistance to support. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is edging toward a bearish signal, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back into the bullish range between 50 and 70, keeping BTC/USD buyers optimistic.
Key supports lie at $114,000, followed by previous highs around $112,000 (May), $109,350 (January), and the yearly peak at $108,364—levels expected to limit any strong downside moves.
On the upside, a break above the recent high near $123,235 would open the door to targets at the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci Extension levels of the April–June rally, near $127,800 and $135,880, respectively.
Notably, the ascending trendline resistance from March 2024 aligns with the 100% extension, marking $135,000 as a significant challenge for the bulls.
Ethereum Takes the Lead as Bitcoin Struggles to Keep Pace
Whether it’s steady ETF inflows, bullish on-chain signals, or the jump of the ETH/BTC pair, Ethereum (ETH/USD) buyers appear to have more reasons for optimism than their Bitcoin counterparts.
Starting with the ETH/BTC chart, bulls have taken control—pushing price above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and clearing key horizontal resistance levels from both May and January. This breakout marks the highest ETH/BTC level since January 31, signaling that Ethereum isn’t just riding the broader crypto rally—it’s outpacing Bitcoin. Such relative strength often points to a healthy altcoin environment, with capital rotating into fundamentally solid projects beyond BTC.
That said, the ETH/BTC ratio now approaches the key 0.03230 horizontal hurdle comprising levels marked since late 2024, unless it drops back below the 0.03168 support due to the overbought RSI conditions.
On-Chain Details Challenge ‘Undervaluation’ Concerns
The MVRV metric for Ethereum reveals a less favorable setup for ETH. Short-term Ethereum traders are hovering at 29.42%, while long-term holders’ gains also jumped to nearly 40%. This suggests Ethereum has rose considerably despite having upside potential before entering “overheated” or overvalued territory, mainly due to the MVRV Z-Score for ETH that sits near 0.87, indicating upbeat valuation amid growing market optimism.
ETH ETF Optimism Remain Intact
U.S. spot ETH ETFs reported the 10-week inflow streak to keep the Ethereum buyers hopeful. Also important to note that the weekly ETF inflows jumped to a record high of $2.18 billion.
Additional Favors For ETH/USD Buyers
Apart from the supply-crunch, MVRV details, ETH/BTC Ratio and ETF inflows, a slew of other catalysts also suggest more upside potential of the Ethereum than Bitcoin.
One notable bullish signal is that Ethereum whales—wallets holding over 10,000 ETH—have increased their holdings by approximately $1.4 billion this week.
Among the key buyers, SharpLink Gaming added 88,800 ETH (worth $293 million), bringing its total reserves to 358,000 ETH, per AIinvest.com data. The report also said that FalconX and Kraken made sizable acquisitions of $442 million and $374 million in ETH, respectively while USDT-based purchases totalled $633 million, covering 28,439 ETH.
ETH/USD: Weekly Chart Keeps Bulls Hopeful
ETH/USD is showing early signs of cooling, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing from overbought territory. Still, the bulls maintain control as long as Ethereum holds above the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and stays above the February trendline breakout. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also continues to support the upside scenario.
The next major resistance lies at $3,965, aligned with a key descending trendline from the November 2021 peak. A decisive break above this level could open the door to a test of the $4,090–$4,095 zone—marking a 16-month-old horizontal barrier—before aiming for the all-time high near $4,868 set in 2021.
On the downside, a drop below the late January swing high around $3,440 could trigger a deeper pullback toward the February breakout zone near $2,930. However, the broader bullish outlook remains valid as long as ETH stays above the 200-week SMA at $2,431.
Ripple Bulls Unfazed by SEC Anxiety, Momentum Persists
Despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) remaining tight-lipped on whether it will withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case—following closed-door meetings held on July 10 and 17—XRP continues to attract strong bullish interest. Growing speculation around a potential XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch in 2025, along with aggressive whale accumulation, helped fuel a solid 22% weekly gain in the XRP/USD pair.
Ripple’s long-standing legal battle with the SEC reached a pivotal point earlier in 2025, with the company agreeing to a $125 million settlement fine. While rumors circulated that Ripple paid the fine using XRP tokens, former SEC regional director Marc Fagel confirmed via tweet that the payment was made in cash.
Concerns over delays in the SEC formally dismissing its appeal have also grown, but Fagel clarified that such proceedings typically take one to two months post-vote—indicating that the current wait aligns with standard legal timelines. This suggests that XRP may face some further consolidation before the market sees final resolution in the case and a clearer path toward ETF approval.
Adding fuel to the bullish narrative, whale activity in XRP has surged. The number of wallets holding 1 million or more XRP hit a record high of 2,747 last week and remains elevated at 2,742—with these wallets collectively holding roughly $47.31 billion in XRP. This “smart money” accumulation signals growing confidence among large investors and reinforces the strengthening sentiment around Ripple’s outlook.
XRP 1M+ Coin Balance By Number & Total Balance Held
Additionally, from a technical standpoint, XRP has broken decisively above the key horizontal resistance comprising tops marked in January 2018 and 2025. This breakout, reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover, keeps buyers optimistic, though overbought conditions in the RSI may slow near-term upside as the XRP/USD bulls poke an ascending resistance line from April 2021.
XRP/USD: Weekly Chart Signals Pullback
XRP/USD has staged a technically significant breakout, clearing the multi-year resistance zone surrounding $3.32-$3.40. This breakout is backed by a bullish crossover in the MACD, though an overbought RSI may limit immediate upside, highlighting an ascending resistance line from April 2021, close to $3.60 by the press time.
That said XRP’s short-term pullback to $3.40-$3.32 zone can’t be ruled out unless it crosses the $3.60 hurdle, which in turn could propel prices toward the new ATH of around $4.00 psychological magnet.
Meanwhile, a downside break of $3.32 could trigger heavy consolidation in the Ripple price, dragging it back toward the February high of around $3.02 and then to the $3.00 threshold.
A Comparison of Funding Rates
While earlier analysis pointed to a potential Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rally and a pullback in Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), Santiment’s Total Funding Rates now indicate that BTC and ETH hold the upper hand, while XRP shows signs of weakness. This shift suggests that XRP’s recent surge is more likely to face a correction, compared to the more stable outlook for BTC and ETH.
According to the latest data from Santiment, Bitcoin (BTC) funding rates have firmed to 0.01%, while Ethereum (ETH) funding rates rose to 0.022%. In contrast, XRP’s funding rate dipped slightly from 0.012% to 0.011%, hinting at weakening bullish sentiment.
Conclusion
The crypto market’s landmark rise to a $4 trillion valuation, propelled by the GENIUS Bill and backing from influential political figures, has ignited renewed institutional interest and broad market optimism. While Bitcoin faces a short-term pullback after reaching fresh highs, Ethereum and Ripple continue to drive altcoin enthusiasm, though mixed social signals and funding rate divergences suggest caution. On-chain metrics and ETF inflows underscore stronger bullish momentum in BTC and ETH, whereas XRP may be poised for a near-term correction despite recent gains. Market participants should remain vigilant ahead of key regulatory decisions and macroeconomic events, as consolidation and volatility are likely in the coming weeks amid evolving geopolitical and policy risks.
