- Ripple price tests key support levels but analyst predicts $1.5 trillion market cap on “W pattern” confirmation.
- Rising active addresses, strong whale outflows, and fading legal troubles boost confidence in XRP.
- Technical analysis, the first XRP ETF outflows in 80 weeks challenge optimists.
Ripple (XRP) slips to around $2.30 in Wednesday’s European session, reversing a short-lived rebound from its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The drop follows unexpected ETF outflows and broad market consolidation, pulling XRP back toward key support.
Despite the dip, improving on-chain metrics and easing legal concerns continue to support bullish sentiment. Adding to the intrigue, analyst EGRAG Crypto suggests XRP’s market cap could surge from $135 billion to $1.5 trillion if bullish patterns hold.
EGRAG Crypto points to a complete ‘W’ pattern on XRP’s market cap chart from January 2018 to January 2025 to support its forecast. The analyst sets two targets based on this pattern: a non-logarithmic target of $270 billion and a logarithmic target of $1.5 trillion, both aligning with key Fibonacci Extension levels.
Source: Tradingview
Using the current circulating supply of 58.68 billion XRP tokens, the forecast suggests a price of about $4.60 if the market cap reaches $270 billion. If it hits the $1.5 trillion target, XRP’s price could soar to around $25.56.
On-chain signals
Total liquidations: As per the XRP Total Liquidations chart from the CoinGlass, the latest weakness in prices could be linked to an escalation pattern of long liquidations, suggesting a consolidation in the Ripple price rather than a drastic trend change.
Source: CoinGlass
Active Addresses: A recovery in the XRP active address from a five-week low to 22,639 at the latest, per the CryptoQuant data, hints at recent increase in the market’s interest in the Ripple trading.
Source: CryptoQuant.com
Exchange Outflow – Value Bands – Binance: According to CryptoQuant data, XRP holders with 1K to 1 million tokens are driving most of the exchange outflows on Binance. This trend aligns with XRP’s recent price rise, suggesting that whales are moving their assets off exchanges and into wallets—a classic sign of holding behavior and a potential bullish trend ahead.
Source: CryptoQuant.com
A surprise XRP ETF outflow
While market forecasts and on-chain signals remain bullish for XRP, a surprise development on the ETF front may challenge buyer confidence.
According to CoinShares’ weekly ETF assessment, XRP’s impressive 80-week inflow streak ended with a record $37.2 million in outflows. Though this may be a one-off event, traders are advised to stay cautious before making any moves.
Technical Analysis
Ripple (XRP/USD) finds support at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2.27 at press time. However, a neutral 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) hint at continued weakness in the XRP/USD pair.
Adding to the bearish outlook, a “Death Cross” has formed, as the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA — a classic indicator of potential downside for XRP.
XRP/USD: Daily chart highlights bearish odds
Source: Tradingview
The 200-day and 50-day SMAs, positioned near $2.27 and $2.24 respectively, remain key barriers that XRP/USD bears must overcome to gain control.
If broken, Ripple’s swift drop toward the psychological $2.00 mark and the yearly low of $1.61 (set in April) becomes likely. Further downside could be tested by a descending support line from February, now near $1.48.
On the upside, immediate resistance for the XRP/USD pair is capped by a four-month-old descending trendline near $2.58, part of a broader bearish channel.
Beyond that, a 12-week-old horizontal resistance at $2.67 must be cleared. If the XRP bulls push past $2.67, March’s peak around $3.03 and the yearly high of $3.40 could become their next targets.
Conclusion
While Ripple’s legal victory over the US SEC and its increasing market acceptance strengthen the long-term bullish case for XRP/USD, traders should remain cautious.
Recent technical signals—such as the bearish MACD, a “Death Cross” on the SMAs, and key resistance levels—alongside the surprise end to XRP’s 80-week ETF inflow streak, suggest that near-term optimism may be premature.
Until XRP breaks above key resistance zones and reestablishes strong inflows, conservative positioning may be prudent despite the ambitious long-term forecasts.
