- Solana struggles to justify growing ETF optimism following SEC guidance.
- U.S. SEC’s alleged moves to ease crypto ETF listing hurdles fuel SOL ETF approval odds to 99% in 2025.
- Solana’s tokenized stock market cap tripled last week; Pump.fun set to launch PUMP token on rising SOL optimism
- US tariff concerns weigh on crypto sentiment, testing SOL/USD bulls despite mildly positive technicals and lingering ETF optimism.
Solana (SOL/USD) holds steady near $149.0 during Tuesday’s European session, stabilizing after two consecutive weeks and months of losses, totaling a 21% drop in 2025 so far. The recent calm in SOL price action appears tied to renewed optimism over a possible Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), as well as geopolitical tension following fresh U.S. tariff threats from President Donald Trump.
On Monday, several market reports suggested the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is working on new listing standards that would speed up crypto ETF approvals. This follows the SEC’s request for potential Solana ETF issuers to revise and resubmit their filings by the end of July.
Reuters reported that the SEC aims to offer a standardized listing template, eliminating the need for separate exchange requests with each new crypto product. This could shorten approval timelines from 240 days to just 75. CoinDesk also confirmed the SEC’s directive to Solana ETF issuers. However, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart cautioned via X that this doesn’t guarantee immediate approval.
As of now, over 50 crypto-linked ETFs remain under SEC review.
Still, Polymarket odds for a 2025 Solana ETF approval jumped to nearly 99%, fueling excitement across Solana-linked projects. The optimism helped boost tokenized stock demand and accelerated plans by meme coin platform Pump.fun to launch its native token, PUMP.
On-chain data from rwa.xyz showed that Solana’s tokenized stock market capitalization surged to $48.53 million on July 4, up more than threefold from $15.28 million on June 20.
Furthermore, Solana’s Network Activity also escalates as the latest data from Santiment signals a record print of the Daily Active Address (DAA) to 15.39 million for Monday.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exchange Gate.io has posted a countdown indicating Pump.fun will launch the PUMP token via public sale on July 12.
It’s worth mentioning that the crypto market’s preparations for the “Crypto Week” and a lack of major economics, as well as reducing odds of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) heavy rate cuts in 2025, also direct short-term SOL/USD moves.
Technical Analysis
In line with most of the fundamentals that favor the Solana buyers, technical signals also appear positive as the SOL/USD pair defends the previous week’s breakout of a descending trend line resistance from January. Adding strength to the upside bias are bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and near 50.00 conditions of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI).
SOL/USD: Daily Chart Keeps Buyers Hopeful
Source: Tradingview
Apart from a sustained breakout above the six-month-old resistance line — now acting as support around $140.00 — the formation of higher lows over the past week, along with mostly positive momentum indicators, keeps Solana (SOL/USD) bulls hopeful.
However, for buyers to gain stronger control, a clear break above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently near $159.00, is needed. If that level is cleared, attention will turn to a five-month-long descending resistance line around $171.00, which stands as a key hurdle and final line of defense for the bears.
On the downside, if SOL/USD breaks below the $140.00 support, it could revive bearish momentum, bringing focus back to the horizontal support levels near $126.00, and then $114.00–$113.00, which were lows marked in February and March.
Conclusion
Solana (SOL/USD) is showing signs of stabilization after a rough start to 2025, helped by growing optimism around a potential ETF and broader excitement in the ecosystem, including the upcoming launch of the PUMP token.
That said, Solana holds above key support levels and technical indicators lean modestly positive, but further gains may depend on breaking through resistance near $159.
Looking ahead, regulatory updates, risk sentiment, and key events like “Crypto Week” will likely steer short-term direction. Traders may consider staying cautious but constructive, watching for confirmation of trend strength or renewed downside pressure.
