Key Takeaways
- Rekt Capital warns Bitcoin’s bull market may be nearing its end, saying it’s 88% complete and likely to peak between September and October 2025 based on past halving cycles.
- The analyst advises against relying on speculative cycle extensions, urging traders to take profits before Q3 2025 and treat any gains after that as “bonus time.”
- The analysis highlights a mirroring effect in past cycles, with symmetrical timing from market bottom to peak, and a recent reaccumulation phase helping cool prior momentum.
- Cathie Wood offers a more optimistic view, saying on-chain metrics and investor behavior suggest the bull market is still intact and could continue.
An analyst warns traders not to abandon time-tested cycle principles, even as bullish narratives call for a 2026 peak. According to his analysis, the Bitcoin bull market may already be nearing its end.
In a recent video, Rekt Capital argued that Bitcoin’s current cycle is already 88% complete, warning that the window for continued uptrend may be closing.
“We’re 88% of the way through that bull market,” he said, referring to historical halving cycles that have consistently predicted Bitcoin’s peak within a defined post-halving window.
“Maybe we have a very small slither of time and price expansion left versus the price expansion and time that we’ve already seen elapse over the course of this cycle,” he added.
To support his view, Rekt Capital presented a cycle comparison chart, showing how Bitcoin historically peaks approximately 518 to 550 days after each halving. The current post-halving phase, which was marked from April 2024, would therefore culminate sometime between September and October 2025, if historical symmetry holds.
“The danger is, if we keep moving the goalpost, we’ll eventually miss the bull market top. That’s why I’m sticking to the traditional halving cycles, assuming a September or October 2025 peak. Anything after that is bonus time, and partial profit-taking should already be in play.”
In essence, Rekt Capital is urging traders not to rely on speculative cycle extensions. He recommends following historical patterns, taking profits ahead of a potential Q3 2025 peak, and treating any gains beyond that point as a bonus rather than a certainty.
Chart shows mirrored cycle timing and slowdown
In addition to his warning, the analyst pointed to what he described as a “mirroring effect” across previous Bitcoin market cycles.
In his analysis, the number of days from a cycle’s bottom to its halving often matches the duration from the halving to the eventual peak.
He said this symmetrical structure had appeared in both the 2016 and 2020 cycles and appears to be playing out again in 2024.
Additionally, he highlighted an eight-month reaccumulation phase following the most recent halving, describing it as a “mean reversion” that helped reduce the accelerated price momentum seen earlier in the cycle.
The analyst concluded by highlighting the importance of staying disciplined in the final phase of the BTC bull market. He emphasized that all the work put in since late 2022 now needs to translate into focused execution. With only a limited window of opportunity remaining, he encouraged traders to lock in gains and position themselves for the outcomes they’ve spent months preparing for.
Is This the Final Phase? Not Everyone Agrees
Cathie Wood, chief executive of investment firm Ark Invest and a long-time advocate for Bitcoin, offered a contrasting view in a recent video. She likened Bitcoin to gold, describing it as a potential “risk-off” asset
Wood pointed to Bitcoin’s stability during the recent conflict between Iran and Israel, noting that the cryptocurrency held firm even amid rising geopolitical tensions, which is a behavior typically associated with traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Additionally, Wood said she believes Bitcoin remains in a bull market, citing on-chain metrics and investor sentiment as supporting evidence. She added that these indicators suggest that the current cycle could still extend further.
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