A U.S. Special Forces soldier is reported to have been charged with “insider trading” after using classified intel to make gains from betting on prediction markets regarding whether or not Nicolás Maduro would be captured. Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly bet on Polymarket after learning sensitive classified details about the timing of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” in which he was involved in planning and executing.
How the Insider Trading Scheme Worked
Van Dyke was using a Polymarket account to gamble on whether U.S. military troops would be present in Venezuela, whether Venezuelan president Maduro would be removed from office, and the likelihood of the president invoking the war powers. He placed approximately USD 33,034 in bets between December 26, 2025, and January 26, 2026. Once Maduro was apprehended on January 3, 2026, these contracts were settled as “Yes,” and Van Dyke was alleged to have had withdrawals of about USD 409,881 from his account.
There were also reports in the press following this action regarding some unusual trading activity associated with these positions/contracts, which were all related to the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro.
Van Dyke also made efforts to hide his identity, such as requesting that Polymarket delete his account and changing the email address associated with the account at his crypto exchange to a newly created address that was not linked to him.
What Happens Next
Van Dyke was arrested and has been assigned to a magistrate judge in North Carolina in the Southern District of New York. He faces 3 charges under the Commodity Exchange Act (maximum of 10 years each), 1 charge for wire fraud (maximum of 20 years), and 1 charge for an unlawful monetary transaction (maximum of 10 years). Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has requested a pardon because other people working at the White House committed similar insider trading without any consequences.
On the other hand, there are controversial statements (true or not) from all sides. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that “men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information to accomplish a mission, and are prohibited from using classified intel for personal financial gain.”
Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law, and this FBI will do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and safeguard our nation’s secrets. Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable.” – FBI Director Kash Patel.
